華爾街小心!亞馬遜明年將進軍「銀行業」
Man-cheong
12/19/2017
CFRA 銀行分析師 Ken Leon,示警其他銀行業者,因為亞馬遜進入金融業的腳步,可能比市場預期的更快。亞馬遜在 2018 年,可能透過併購中小型銀行進軍金融業。
Leon 說:「這可能是一個戰略性的舉動,或是更大範圍的整體策略,因為亞馬遜尋求能與消費者與小型企業有更高的黏著性,例如個人汽車借貸、信用卡和房屋抵押貸款等服務。」
連結
Leon 說:「這可能是一個戰略性的舉動,或是更大範圍的整體策略,因為亞馬遜尋求能與消費者與小型企業有更高的黏著性,例如個人汽車借貸、信用卡和房屋抵押貸款等服務。」
連結
高盛中止跟蹤大新金融,目標價60.1元
Man-cheong
12/15/2017
高盛發表報告,表示中止覆蓋大新金融(440),予其目標價60.1元,最後評級為「中性」。該行稱,自其2017年出售香港人壽業務後,料今年持續盈利95%來自主要來自附屬大新銀行(2356),也是未來數年主要盈利動力,60.1元目標價基於85%和15%的分類加總和併購價值混合,相當於2018年度市賬率0.75倍。
Dah Sing
大新擬增人手吸VIP客
Man-cheong
12/15/2017
重慶銀行擬發7.5億美元永續境外優先股
Man-cheong
12/14/2017
重慶銀行(01963)建議發行7.5億美元、年息5.4厘的非累積永續境外優先股,發行日為下周三(20日)。
上述優先股的初始轉換價為每股H股8.57元,轉股價較昨日H股收市6.17元,有38.9%溢價。
連結
上述優先股的初始轉換價為每股H股8.57元,轉股價較昨日H股收市6.17元,有38.9%溢價。
連結
Chinese Banks Face Potential Capital Shortfall, IMF Says
Man-cheong
12/12/2017
The IMF said China should consider boosting risk-weighted assets at its banks by 0.5% to 1% over the coming 12 months. While China’s largest banks are well-capitalized, the IMF said, medium and small banks could face the need to raise even more capital.
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德銀稱大新金融現顯著低估為買入點
Man-cheong
12/07/2017
德銀表示,自6月16日宣布出售人壽部門止,大新銀行(2356)和大新金融(440)前13個月升了22%和28%,其後大新金融在無意私有化銀行和剩餘現金不明下,失寵挫17%,大新銀行則升3%,雖然擬推動其一般保險業務本身並非沒有挑戰,但現價已反映有關不明朗,近期跑輸是很好買入點,維持「買入」,目標價66.5元。
德銀指出,如果基於一成半的控股折讓,目前市場予大新金融的非銀行業務只有11億元市值,並予其包括61%為過剩現金的賬面值潛在折讓達八成,預期其配置目前閒置58億元現金失敗,該行認為目前折讓過份懲罰性,畢竟大新可將資金用於近期銀行貸款增長,且近期息率上升也有利孳息率和債券投資。
德銀稱,大新金融剩餘的一般保險業務在香港只是邊緣參與者,市佔率0.6%排名43位,但對比壽險行業穩定,首十大在2012-16年均維持相似市佔率,而大新一般保險主要弱點是低承保利潤率,若注入現有資本兩倍的15億元資金或可改善,若其回復至行業平均,核心利潤率或倍升,長線盈利複合年回報率達11%。
德銀指出,大新銀行和大新金融今年分別跑輸恒指和同業10%和37%,其估值仍然吸引,是覆蓋港銀中折讓最大,高單位數股東回報率卻只以0.9倍和0.8倍市賬率交投,又相信市場很大程度忽略大新的銀行營運在貸存比率達75%,往來及儲蓄存款比率也較10年前的22%升至40%,也可受益較高息環境。
Dah Sing
德銀指出,如果基於一成半的控股折讓,目前市場予大新金融的非銀行業務只有11億元市值,並予其包括61%為過剩現金的賬面值潛在折讓達八成,預期其配置目前閒置58億元現金失敗,該行認為目前折讓過份懲罰性,畢竟大新可將資金用於近期銀行貸款增長,且近期息率上升也有利孳息率和債券投資。
德銀稱,大新金融剩餘的一般保險業務在香港只是邊緣參與者,市佔率0.6%排名43位,但對比壽險行業穩定,首十大在2012-16年均維持相似市佔率,而大新一般保險主要弱點是低承保利潤率,若注入現有資本兩倍的15億元資金或可改善,若其回復至行業平均,核心利潤率或倍升,長線盈利複合年回報率達11%。
德銀指出,大新銀行和大新金融今年分別跑輸恒指和同業10%和37%,其估值仍然吸引,是覆蓋港銀中折讓最大,高單位數股東回報率卻只以0.9倍和0.8倍市賬率交投,又相信市場很大程度忽略大新的銀行營運在貸存比率達75%,往來及儲蓄存款比率也較10年前的22%升至40%,也可受益較高息環境。
Dah Sing
大新系澄清重慶銀行撥備方式惹人遐想
Man-cheong
12/06/2017
大新系聯合公布,旗下銀行持有的重慶銀行(1963)共4.59億H股,以聯營公司方式列賬,6月底賬面值為47.9億元,雖然其賬面值因重慶銀行所貢獻的利潤而持續上升,但其使用價值(VIU)卻減少,導致兩者差額收窄,未來一旦跌破賬面值可能需要減值撥備,強調屬非現金項目,目前尚未決定是否需要撥備和相關金額。
簡單而言,大新銀行(2356)持有的重慶銀行賬面值因為盈利滾存而一直增長,反觀所謂VIU則因為股價不前,加上其盈利展望、宏觀經濟和現金流折讓等因素不佳而下跌,一般而言,這類自願公布除非涉及特大變故,否則大新系每半年業績作出公布和評估已頗為足夠,今次甚至先於匯控澄清內銀入賬情況,引人遐想。 Dah Sing
簡單而言,大新銀行(2356)持有的重慶銀行賬面值因為盈利滾存而一直增長,反觀所謂VIU則因為股價不前,加上其盈利展望、宏觀經濟和現金流折讓等因素不佳而下跌,一般而言,這類自願公布除非涉及特大變故,否則大新系每半年業績作出公布和評估已頗為足夠,今次甚至先於匯控澄清內銀入賬情況,引人遐想。 Dah Sing
Dah Sing's announcement in relation to the accounting treatment of the BOCQ
Man-cheong
12/05/2017
Up to 30 June 2017, the VIU has been above the Carrying Value, and hence no impairment charge has been made. However, in recent periods, whilst the Carrying Value has continued to increase, due to the profit contribution made by BOCQ, the VIU has decreased leading to a narrowing in the difference between the VIU and the Carrying Value. It is therefore possible that in future 1
assessments, the VIU may fall below the Carrying Value, in which case an impairment charge may become necessary in the financial results of DSB, DSBG and DSFH as set out above.
Shareholders and potential investors are reminded that no decision has yet been made as to whether an impairment charge to the Investment will be necessary, or if so, the quantum of any such impairment charge. Up to and including 30 June 2017, the VIU was still above the Carrying Value. However, in view of the narrowing of the difference between VIU and Carrying Value over time, further information to ensure that shareholders are aware of the accounting treatment as regards the Group’s investment in BOCQ was felt to be relevant information.
Link Dah Sing
assessments, the VIU may fall below the Carrying Value, in which case an impairment charge may become necessary in the financial results of DSB, DSBG and DSFH as set out above.
Shareholders and potential investors are reminded that no decision has yet been made as to whether an impairment charge to the Investment will be necessary, or if so, the quantum of any such impairment charge. Up to and including 30 June 2017, the VIU was still above the Carrying Value. However, in view of the narrowing of the difference between VIU and Carrying Value over time, further information to ensure that shareholders are aware of the accounting treatment as regards the Group’s investment in BOCQ was felt to be relevant information.
Link Dah Sing
德銀指港銀資金成本向上,僅看好大新系
Man-cheong
12/04/2017
德銀表示,香港金管局10月份數據顯示銀行在新股活動下貸款增長跑贏存款1.1%,貸存比率升至73%,為2015年3月以來最高,而資金成本同時明顯向上,限制息差表現,維持對香港金融股審慎看法,認為市場忽略資金成本向上,維持沽售中銀香港、東亞和港交所,只看好大新系,因其較同業估值有折讓。
Dah Sing
Credit Suisse to give half its profits to shareholders
Man-cheong
12/04/2017
By 2019 and 2020, Credit Suisse said it planned to distribute 50 per cent of net income primarily through share buybacks or special dividends. “Our strategy is working,” Mr Thiam said.
He announced for the first time targets for increasing returns on tangible equity — a common measure of shareholder returns — at 10 to 11 per cent in 2019 and 11 to 12 per cent in 2020. In the first nine months of this year, the figure was 4.1 per cent and in 2016 it was minus 6.9 per cent.
He announced for the first time targets for increasing returns on tangible equity — a common measure of shareholder returns — at 10 to 11 per cent in 2019 and 11 to 12 per cent in 2020. In the first nine months of this year, the figure was 4.1 per cent and in 2016 it was minus 6.9 per cent.
施羅德近日增持大新銀行至5.03%
Man-cheong
12/01/2017
聯交所資料顯示,英國投資集團施羅德(Schroders Plc)於11月28日在場內增持55.6萬股大新銀行(2356),每股平均價16.9207元,持好倉由原來4.99%增至5.03%。
Dah Sing
Dah Sing
泰禾人壽冀晉港保險十大
Man-cheong
11/30/2017
蔡惠儀透露,公司接收大新人壽的團隊,現有員工數量約180人,冀明年第一季增聘人手至200餘人,未來將按業務需要決定增聘規模,並將透過保險科技及人工智能,進行數據分析及定價,擬於年底推出危疾、儲蓄及保障產品。
對於近年內地居民來港購買保險的監管有所收緊,而目前泰禾人壽約一半高端客戶來自內地,蔡惠儀指出,內地客戶一般看中香港的醫療保障較完善,故危疾及醫療的保險產品相當受歡迎,又認為收緊監管是國家短期內對海外資產配置的政策,相信長遠有助行業建立健康體制。
蔡惠儀稱,現時公司在整體保險業務方面排名20,目標是一至兩年內晉身香港十大保險公司。
連結
對於近年內地居民來港購買保險的監管有所收緊,而目前泰禾人壽約一半高端客戶來自內地,蔡惠儀指出,內地客戶一般看中香港的醫療保障較完善,故危疾及醫療的保險產品相當受歡迎,又認為收緊監管是國家短期內對海外資產配置的政策,相信長遠有助行業建立健康體制。
蔡惠儀稱,現時公司在整體保險業務方面排名20,目標是一至兩年內晉身香港十大保險公司。
連結
大新金融折讓已逾三成,股東可向管理層表態
Man-cheong
11/21/2017
鑑於近日大新金融股價波動,折讓最少擴大至逾三成,為歷史高位,許文昌已經傳真表態,其他股東如有意可自行傳真或發信大新,如有意向本網頁上載存檔,可自行遮蓋個人資料,電郵:[email protected]
Dah Sing , Library
获利激增加上政府施压 亚洲大型企业今年有望慷慨派息
Man-cheong
11/20/2017
汤森路透统计的获利数据显示,随着新智能手机的推出加大了对记忆体芯片和图像传感器的需求,三星电子(005930.KS)和索尼(6758.T)等科技企业预计今年获利创记录并提高派息。
马来西亚联昌国际集团(CIMB)(CIMB.KL)公布期中股息11.8亿马币(2.8196亿美元),等于上半年获利的51.6%都用于支付股息。该公司6月当季的获利为四年来次佳。
亚洲公司支付股息的能力从未受到质疑,但他们愿意坐拥大笔现金,往往影响了股东回报。
过去12个月,亚洲公司的股息支付率为34%,低于欧洲的45%和北美的43%,尽管亚洲公司的获利增长超过其他两个地区。
分析师指出,由于政府对企业的施压增强,亚洲的派息文化可能发生改变。
中国证券监管机构已经誓言将惩罚那些不支付现金分红的公司,中国企业的股息正在上升。中国神华(601088.SS)今年稍早宣布派发价值500亿元人民币(75.3亿美元)的特别股息。
日本2015年推出公司治理法,旨在保护股东权利和提高股东回报。自实施以来,更多公司开始遵守该法。
日本、香港、马来西亚、台湾和泰国已纷纷推出尽责管理守则(stewardship code),旨在使机构投资者积极推动公司改善治理、提高投资回报。
韩国料在今年采用尽责管理守则,得到总统文在寅的强力支持。
連結
马来西亚联昌国际集团(CIMB)(CIMB.KL)公布期中股息11.8亿马币(2.8196亿美元),等于上半年获利的51.6%都用于支付股息。该公司6月当季的获利为四年来次佳。
亚洲公司支付股息的能力从未受到质疑,但他们愿意坐拥大笔现金,往往影响了股东回报。
过去12个月,亚洲公司的股息支付率为34%,低于欧洲的45%和北美的43%,尽管亚洲公司的获利增长超过其他两个地区。
分析师指出,由于政府对企业的施压增强,亚洲的派息文化可能发生改变。
中国证券监管机构已经誓言将惩罚那些不支付现金分红的公司,中国企业的股息正在上升。中国神华(601088.SS)今年稍早宣布派发价值500亿元人民币(75.3亿美元)的特别股息。
日本2015年推出公司治理法,旨在保护股东权利和提高股东回报。自实施以来,更多公司开始遵守该法。
日本、香港、马来西亚、台湾和泰国已纷纷推出尽责管理守则(stewardship code),旨在使机构投资者积极推动公司改善治理、提高投资回报。
韩国料在今年采用尽责管理守则,得到总统文在寅的强力支持。
連結
大行減息搶市佔率 滙豐按息低見H+1.28厘
Man-cheong
11/20/2017
臨近年尾,大行削減按揭息率。據兩名業內人士透露,滙豐近日重推1個月拆息(H)加1.28厘按揭計劃,重返今年5月時最低水平,貸款額要求為800萬元。分析認為,大行掉頭減息為求與中小型銀行看齊,惟按揭利率於現水平已較難繼續下調。
連結
連結
許文昌:大新系重現大幅折讓應予正視
Man-cheong
11/15/2017
大新金融(440)近日宣布,完成出售澳門人壽業務,結合香港業務已於6月完成出售和宣派特別股息,其高價檢討人壽業務並出售的安排大致結束,然而大新金融自宣派特別股息之後整系大幅跑輸大市,大新金融甚至倒跌至重現三成折讓,管理層應研究增派特別息和繼續重組,改善股東回報。
大新金融自2016年1月宣布檢討人壽業務,最終以總額106億元高價出售,雖然受到內地收緊資金流出限制而一度延遲,但交易大利母子企業,然而今年6月19日公布完成主要香港部份交易並宣布特別股息以來,大新銀行(2356)僅升3.7%,大新金融甚至倒跌一成,大幅跑輸恒指同期12.3%的升幅,也不及同業中銀香港(2388)和恒生(11)10-15.7%的回報。
今年以來起計,大新金融僅升9.9%,嚴重落後,大新銀行則升22.5%,雖然仍然跑輸兩大行和恒生指數同期的31.4%-35.5升幅,但總算跑贏估值較高的東亞(23)的12.3%,大新母企近期跑輸子企銀行甚至同業的明顯理由,就是高價落實出售人壽之後,大新金融派息額度和資金調配的保守讓市場失望。
正如筆者早在交易完成之前已經指出,大新金融出售人壽業務後並沒有保留大量資金的需要,足可派發20元以上特別股息,單是其套現所得80億元資金有33億元即每股9.85元竟列為一般營運資金,導致大新金融對比大新銀行的折讓重新加劇,6月底筆者已呼籲其應增派每股10元股息。
目前大新金融市值僅171億元,已經少於其手持的大新銀行74.6%的股權市值180億元,相當於每股53.7元,即其剩餘保守估計價值60億元或每股17.9元的一般保險業務和現金全數為負,現價相對每股逾71元資產值折讓幅度高逾兩成八,與2016年初當時大新金融三成折讓不遑多讓,筆者認為管理層高價完成大新人壽放售後,折讓這樣大幅重現令人失望。
畢竟大新人壽今次在放售時機和價錢的掌握,值得予管理層讚賞,但對資金後續處理的保守,反映市場的不滿。根據海通國際報告,早前賣產資金年回報低至5%,只為2018-19年度帶來7-8%純利貢獻,其擬增資的一般保險業務,未來數年股本回報不足5%,33億元現金投放債券回報僅2.3-4%。
國際貨幣基金上月報告引述研究表示,銀行的股本成本,即股票投資者期待的回報率至少應為8%。而銀行的利潤水平需高於這個門檻方可保持持續盈利,否則可能在籌措應急資金時面臨困境。而大新金融目前投資的回報低於8%,仿傚歐美同業將過剩資金分派股東或回購顯然是更好的選擇。
券商均普遍認同目前大新金融估值低,股價調整過度,匯豐8月時稱,大新金融股價相當於出售人壽所得和一般保險市賬率不足0.1倍,折讓不合理,目標價74.5元。海通國際上月也重申大新金融「買入」評級,目標價65.2元,相當於分類加總之下市賬率1.05倍的大新銀行、0.6倍一般保險、1倍現金和債券等,再予11.1%控股折讓,指近期股價調整過度。
星展8月時已經指出,大新銀行是唯一低於市賬率交投的港銀,以其一成股東回報率而言並不合理,且其仍是市場下一併購對象,升目標價至20.2元,相當於2018年市賬率1.04倍,尚未加入併購稀缺溢價,作為兩間剩餘具規模的家族銀行之一,賣盤料達至少兩倍市賬率。
然而大新銀行已離高位跌4.1%,大新金融更急挫13.6%,除了資金可能對目前管理層管理予以折讓外,或對中小型銀行前景負面,評級機構穆迪指大新銀行表現具韌性,並維持良好財務狀況,但核心盈利跑輸本港同業,部分由於經營開支較高,經營效率略遜,也受重慶銀行(1963)盈利密切相關。
查大新系中期業績表現不俗,回報改善,加上完成人壽出售之後大新銀行將在下半年開始錄得新增的人壽分銷收益,而大新金融在出售人壽後溢利將幾乎全數來源大新銀行,管理層卻坐收兩份袍金,股價表現低迷並令股東繼續承受大幅折讓並非好事,若長此下去折讓將困擾大新系。在各大券商普遍認同折讓嚴重的情況下,管理層有必要審視增派特別息和繼續重組的可能。
連結
Dah Sing , Library
大新金融自2016年1月宣布檢討人壽業務,最終以總額106億元高價出售,雖然受到內地收緊資金流出限制而一度延遲,但交易大利母子企業,然而今年6月19日公布完成主要香港部份交易並宣布特別股息以來,大新銀行(2356)僅升3.7%,大新金融甚至倒跌一成,大幅跑輸恒指同期12.3%的升幅,也不及同業中銀香港(2388)和恒生(11)10-15.7%的回報。
今年以來起計,大新金融僅升9.9%,嚴重落後,大新銀行則升22.5%,雖然仍然跑輸兩大行和恒生指數同期的31.4%-35.5升幅,但總算跑贏估值較高的東亞(23)的12.3%,大新母企近期跑輸子企銀行甚至同業的明顯理由,就是高價落實出售人壽之後,大新金融派息額度和資金調配的保守讓市場失望。
正如筆者早在交易完成之前已經指出,大新金融出售人壽業務後並沒有保留大量資金的需要,足可派發20元以上特別股息,單是其套現所得80億元資金有33億元即每股9.85元竟列為一般營運資金,導致大新金融對比大新銀行的折讓重新加劇,6月底筆者已呼籲其應增派每股10元股息。
目前大新金融市值僅171億元,已經少於其手持的大新銀行74.6%的股權市值180億元,相當於每股53.7元,即其剩餘保守估計價值60億元或每股17.9元的一般保險業務和現金全數為負,現價相對每股逾71元資產值折讓幅度高逾兩成八,與2016年初當時大新金融三成折讓不遑多讓,筆者認為管理層高價完成大新人壽放售後,折讓這樣大幅重現令人失望。
畢竟大新人壽今次在放售時機和價錢的掌握,值得予管理層讚賞,但對資金後續處理的保守,反映市場的不滿。根據海通國際報告,早前賣產資金年回報低至5%,只為2018-19年度帶來7-8%純利貢獻,其擬增資的一般保險業務,未來數年股本回報不足5%,33億元現金投放債券回報僅2.3-4%。
國際貨幣基金上月報告引述研究表示,銀行的股本成本,即股票投資者期待的回報率至少應為8%。而銀行的利潤水平需高於這個門檻方可保持持續盈利,否則可能在籌措應急資金時面臨困境。而大新金融目前投資的回報低於8%,仿傚歐美同業將過剩資金分派股東或回購顯然是更好的選擇。
券商均普遍認同目前大新金融估值低,股價調整過度,匯豐8月時稱,大新金融股價相當於出售人壽所得和一般保險市賬率不足0.1倍,折讓不合理,目標價74.5元。海通國際上月也重申大新金融「買入」評級,目標價65.2元,相當於分類加總之下市賬率1.05倍的大新銀行、0.6倍一般保險、1倍現金和債券等,再予11.1%控股折讓,指近期股價調整過度。
星展8月時已經指出,大新銀行是唯一低於市賬率交投的港銀,以其一成股東回報率而言並不合理,且其仍是市場下一併購對象,升目標價至20.2元,相當於2018年市賬率1.04倍,尚未加入併購稀缺溢價,作為兩間剩餘具規模的家族銀行之一,賣盤料達至少兩倍市賬率。
然而大新銀行已離高位跌4.1%,大新金融更急挫13.6%,除了資金可能對目前管理層管理予以折讓外,或對中小型銀行前景負面,評級機構穆迪指大新銀行表現具韌性,並維持良好財務狀況,但核心盈利跑輸本港同業,部分由於經營開支較高,經營效率略遜,也受重慶銀行(1963)盈利密切相關。
查大新系中期業績表現不俗,回報改善,加上完成人壽出售之後大新銀行將在下半年開始錄得新增的人壽分銷收益,而大新金融在出售人壽後溢利將幾乎全數來源大新銀行,管理層卻坐收兩份袍金,股價表現低迷並令股東繼續承受大幅折讓並非好事,若長此下去折讓將困擾大新系。在各大券商普遍認同折讓嚴重的情況下,管理層有必要審視增派特別息和繼續重組的可能。
連結
Dah Sing , Library
大新金融完成出售澳門人壽
Man-cheong
11/10/2017
中銀19億購母企越菲資產
Man-cheong
11/10/2017
越南及菲律賓業務是中銀計劃向母公司購入的東盟6國資產(泰國、馬來西亞、印尼、柬埔賽、菲律賓及越南)中,最後兩個市場業務。
公佈指截至去年底,中行越南業務經審計資產淨值為1.01億美元(約7.83億港元),菲律賓業務則為25.5億披索(約3.98億港元),換言之,中銀以相等於1.5倍及1.73倍市賬率,分別收購母公司越南及菲律賓相關資產。
連結
公佈指截至去年底,中行越南業務經審計資產淨值為1.01億美元(約7.83億港元),菲律賓業務則為25.5億披索(約3.98億港元),換言之,中銀以相等於1.5倍及1.73倍市賬率,分別收購母公司越南及菲律賓相關資產。
連結
穆迪確認大新銀行評級,展望上修至「穩定」
Man-cheong
11/08/2017
評級機構穆迪指,確認大新銀行集團(02356.HK)長期存款評級「A3」,評級展望由「負面」修訂至「穩定」。即使近年香港經濟增長呆滯,穆迪指大新銀行表現具韌性,並維持良好財務狀況,資產質素強勁,資本充足,而且流動性良好。
報告指,大新銀行專注中小企貸款,並有效管理資產質素。近年不良貸率維持低於或接近1%水平,今年6月底,不良貸率錄0.82%,較去年底跌23點子。穆迪料隨著經濟增長動力回復,該行資產風險穩定。
另方面,穆迪認為,大新銀行核心盈利跑輸本港同業,部分由於經營開支較高;該行經營效率略遜同業。成本對收入比率在今年上半年達51%,高於其他銀行的約四成半水平。大新銀行作為策略性股東,盈利與重慶銀行(01963.HK)密切相關,重行貢獻大新銀行上半年稅前盈利達25%。
連結 Dah Sing
報告指,大新銀行專注中小企貸款,並有效管理資產質素。近年不良貸率維持低於或接近1%水平,今年6月底,不良貸率錄0.82%,較去年底跌23點子。穆迪料隨著經濟增長動力回復,該行資產風險穩定。
另方面,穆迪認為,大新銀行核心盈利跑輸本港同業,部分由於經營開支較高;該行經營效率略遜同業。成本對收入比率在今年上半年達51%,高於其他銀行的約四成半水平。大新銀行作為策略性股東,盈利與重慶銀行(01963.HK)密切相關,重行貢獻大新銀行上半年稅前盈利達25%。
連結 Dah Sing
重慶銀行首三季多賺11%
Man-cheong
10/30/2017
大新特選客交10萬稅 利率最低0.68厘
Man-cheong
10/18/2017
Credit Suisse Targeted for Breakup by Little Hedge Fund With Big Plans
Man-cheong
10/18/2017
A small but top-performing activist hedge fund has set its sights on an ambitious target: breaking up Swiss banking behemoth Credit Suisse Group AG.
RBR Capital Advisors AG, which is based close to Lake Zurich and headed by outspoken trader Rudolf Bohli, said Tuesday it wanted the bank to split into an investment bank, a wealth manager and an asset manager.
Link
RBR Capital Advisors AG, which is based close to Lake Zurich and headed by outspoken trader Rudolf Bohli, said Tuesday it wanted the bank to split into an investment bank, a wealth manager and an asset manager.
Link
IMF Identifies Nine Big Banks Likely to Struggle With Profitability
Man-cheong
10/12/2017
It is unusual for a body like the IMF to identify banks by name. The report named nine financial institutions in all, Besides Citigroup, Deutsche and Barclays, it also named Société Générale , SCGLY 0.13% Italy’s UniCredit UNCFF -0.54% S.p.A., the U.K.’s Standard Chartered STAN -0.30% PLC and Japan’s Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group , Mizuho Financial Group and Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group as likely to deliver subpar profits.
“Institutions that are not profitable might not be able to generate enough capital in the future should adverse shocks hit,” Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, told reporters. “It might become a financial stability risk not to be profitable.”
The IMF said the consensus among private-sector bank-industry analysts was for a return on equity of less than 8% for each of those nine banks in 2019. In previous research, the IMF has said that banks’ cost of equity—that is the return stock investors expect on their holdings—is at least 8%. Banks need to earn above this threshold to remain consistently profitable and otherwise may face difficulty building capital for a rainy day, the IMF said.
Link
“Institutions that are not profitable might not be able to generate enough capital in the future should adverse shocks hit,” Tobias Adrian, director of the IMF’s monetary and capital markets department, told reporters. “It might become a financial stability risk not to be profitable.”
The IMF said the consensus among private-sector bank-industry analysts was for a return on equity of less than 8% for each of those nine banks in 2019. In previous research, the IMF has said that banks’ cost of equity—that is the return stock investors expect on their holdings—is at least 8%. Banks need to earn above this threshold to remain consistently profitable and otherwise may face difficulty building capital for a rainy day, the IMF said.
Link
海通國際升大新金融目標價至66元 大新銀行19.96元
Man-cheong
10/12/2017
海通國際重申大新金融(440)「買入」評級,目標價升至66元,認為市場目前未反映其一般保險業務和所剩的現金及證券投資。其擬增資旗下一般保險業務14.5億元,料業務股本回報將由2017年的2.7%反彈至2018-19年度的4.4-4.9%,33億元現金投放債券回報約為2.3-4%。
海通國際上調大新銀行(2356)目標價至19.96元,評級維持「買入」,分析員陳昔典認為,大新銀行資產和負債管理改善,淨息差壓力有限料2017-19年淨息差1.92-1.95%,料其一級資本充足比率期間維持13%以上,無補充資本需要。香港銀行同業拆息跟隨美息上升將是短期催化劑。
Dah Sing
海通國際上調大新銀行(2356)目標價至19.96元,評級維持「買入」,分析員陳昔典認為,大新銀行資產和負債管理改善,淨息差壓力有限料2017-19年淨息差1.92-1.95%,料其一級資本充足比率期間維持13%以上,無補充資本需要。香港銀行同業拆息跟隨美息上升將是短期催化劑。
Dah Sing
Japan Is Counting on Shareholder Activism to Improve Its Economy
Man-cheong
10/05/2017
Shareholder activism is a quintessentially American form of investing. In the U.S., CEOs live in fear of activist hedge funds, and politicians worry about their effects on workers. But the case for shareholder activism is perhaps best seen in Japan, where the corporate sector tends to be structurally skewed in favor of employees, at the expense of shareholders and the economy. In Japan several factors combine to help insulate managers from outside influence, including cross-holdings where the company owns shares in a partner firm, docile boards mostly composed of company executives, and a court system historically biased against investment funds. In Japan the worry lately has not been about too much shareholder activism but about too little. Remarkably, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has embraced shareholder activism, in a bid to encourage the adoption of his corporate governance reforms, a central part of his economic policy platform.
Link
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大新系疲弱,大新金融折讓重回2016年初高位
Man-cheong
9/26/2017
大新系近一個月以來表現疲弱,遠遜同業,大新銀行(2356)離高位已跌6.8%,大新金融(440)更挫逾13%,反觀中銀和東亞只跌3-4%,恒生(11)更逆市創新高,隨著全球央行縮水收表,相信資金流入大型港銀趨勢持續。以中期業績計,大新銀行未抵一倍市賬率固然低估,母企更是低殘。
目前大新金融手持的大新銀行股份已超過市值,即所剩的每股約莫18元現金和一般保險被視為負資產,折讓幅度已逾兩成七,重回2016年初研究出售大新人壽前的水平,在各大券商普遍認同折讓嚴重的情況下,管理層有必要在出售澳門保險的同時,審視增派特別息和重組的可能。
Dah Sing
目前大新金融手持的大新銀行股份已超過市值,即所剩的每股約莫18元現金和一般保險被視為負資產,折讓幅度已逾兩成七,重回2016年初研究出售大新人壽前的水平,在各大券商普遍認同折讓嚴重的情況下,管理層有必要在出售澳門保險的同時,審視增派特別息和重組的可能。
Dah Sing
高盛唱好中銀香港 金管局吸水有助息差
Man-cheong
9/25/2017
高盛發表研究報告,調高中銀香港(2388)及恒生(011)目標價及評級,其中將中銀香港評級由「中性」調升至「買入」,目標價由38.2元上調至45.6元,原因是香港拆息(Hibor)與倫敦銀行間拆借利率(Libor)之息差收窄,將對香港大銀行的淨息差產生積極影響,存款業務改善對利潤的貢獻料使銀行股跑贏大市。高盛亦將恒生銀行(011)目標價由160元上調至185元,評級由「沽售」提升至「中性」。
高盛同時維持大新銀行(2356)及大新金融(440)的「中性」評級;東亞銀行(023)評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,目標價32.2元。
高盛同時維持大新銀行(2356)及大新金融(440)的「中性」評級;東亞銀行(023)評級由「中性」降至「沽售」,目標價32.2元。
S&P Strips Hong Kong of AAA Rating After China Downgrade
Man-cheong
9/22/2017
The financial hub’s long-term issuer credit rating was lowered to AA+ from AAA, S&P said in astatement Friday. The agency lowered China’s sovereign rating Thursday to A+ from AA-, citing the risks from soaring debt, and revised its outlook to stable from negative.
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德銀重申大新系母子估值不高維持買入
Man-cheong
9/14/2017
德銀早前出席大新系業績後解說會表示,銀行淨息差環比下跌7點子至1.94%乃因較高資金成本和外匯存息,管理層冀下半年維持相若水平,也對下半年資產質素審慎樂觀,冀信貸開支穩定,長期則不排除收購定位獨特的一般保險或金融公司。該行認為大新系估值不高且相對其他銀行吸引,維持母子「買入」。
Dah Sing
消息人士称20多个买家角逐安盛财富管理(香港)
Man-cheong
9/14/2017
三名了解情况的消息人士表示,大约有20多家公司在角逐收购法国安盛(Axa)旗下的香港财富管理分支,这些竞购者多数来自中国。法国安盛计划出售该业务,以将精力放在增长更快的亚洲业务上面。
他们透露,意向方当中包括中国太平(0966.HK)和碧桂园(2007.HK)。由于未获授权对媒体谈论交易过程,这些消息人士不愿具名。
連結
他们透露,意向方当中包括中国太平(0966.HK)和碧桂园(2007.HK)。由于未获授权对媒体谈论交易过程,这些消息人士不愿具名。
連結
Moody’s downgrades China’s fifth-largest bank to junk
Man-cheong
9/08/2017
Credit-rating agency Moody’s has downgraded Bank of Communications, China’s fifth-largest lender by assets, to junk status citing its increasing reliance on pricey and volatile wholesale funding.
The agency downgraded BoCom’s baseline credit assessment one notch to Ba1 from Baa3, crossing the divide between investment grade and junk.
Link
The agency downgraded BoCom’s baseline credit assessment one notch to Ba1 from Baa3, crossing the divide between investment grade and junk.
Link
低成本融資收緊 中國中小銀行擴張難度加大
Man-cheong
9/04/2017
China’s Legend Holdings Makes European Push With Luxembourg Bank Deal
Man-cheong
9/04/2017
Beijing-based Legend, best known for its stake in computer maker Lenovo Group Ltd., said it would pay Precision Capital SA €1.48 billion ($1.76 billion) for an 89.9% stake, valuing BIL at €1.6 billion. The Luxembourg government will continue holding the remaining shares.
Link
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中銀香港31億掃鄧成波三物業
Man-cheong
9/01/2017
資深投資者鄧成波或有關人士沽出觀塘THE WAVE全幢、銅鑼灣泰港大廈1至3樓、以及鰂魚涌東匯中心商場地庫,涉及金額31億元,新買家為中銀香港(2388)旗下中銀香港資產,而鄧料帳面勁賺約20億元。
連結
連結
匯豐升大新銀行評級至買入,大新金融看74.5元
Man-cheong
9/01/2017
匯豐表示,大新銀行(2356)中期業績獲資產質素改善、較佳貸款增長動力和較高費用收入帶增長帶動,雖然淨息差復蘇較難捉摸,但落實國際會計準則9應較先前評估負面影響較小,因資產質素改善、大部份貸款屬有抵押和財資投資撥備上升有限,升評級至「買入」,上調盈測11-12%,目標價20元。
匯豐稱,大新金融(440)管理層預期出售澳門人壽交易,待監管批准後可在2017年底完成,而管理層稱港澳一般保險歷史回報約6-10%,也承認在完全運用32億元出售所得前會有中短期攤薄影響。目前股價相當於出售人壽所得和一般保險市賬率不足0.1倍,折讓不合理,目標價升2%至74.5元。 Dah Sing
匯豐稱,大新金融(440)管理層預期出售澳門人壽交易,待監管批准後可在2017年底完成,而管理層稱港澳一般保險歷史回報約6-10%,也承認在完全運用32億元出售所得前會有中短期攤薄影響。目前股價相當於出售人壽所得和一般保險市賬率不足0.1倍,折讓不合理,目標價升2%至74.5元。 Dah Sing
星展升大新銀行目標價至20.2元,料賣盤達兩倍市賬率
Man-cheong
9/01/2017
星展表示,大新銀行(2356)是唯一低於市賬率交投的港銀,以其一成股東回報率而言並不合理,且其仍是市場下一併購對象,因應較高貸款增長和較低撥備,升目標價至20.2元,相當於2018年市賬率1.04倍,尚未加入併購稀缺溢價,作為兩間剩餘具規模的家族銀行之一,賣盤料達至少兩倍市賬率。
Dah Sing
大新金融: 不排除考慮併購保險業務
Man-cheong
9/01/2017
集團旗下大新銀行董事總經理王祖興表示,獲利餘額約14.5億元將投放擴展本港及澳門一般保險業務,目前計劃主要透過自營方式帶動增長,但若遇到合適機會,「亦不排除會積極考慮併購一般保險業務的可能」。
http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20170825/20131750 Dah Sing
創興大客拖數 累半年少賺13.5%
Man-cheong
8/31/2017
創興銀行副主席兼董事總經理梁高美懿表示,純利倒退是因為受單一客戶貸款的不良貸款,但認為只屬單一事件,集團已重新檢視現有貸款客戶。該行亦表示,減值貸款比率維持低水平,撥備覆蓋率高,而資本充足比率及流動性維持比率均高於相關法定要求。
連結
連結
中銀核心盈利新高 派息0.64元
Man-cheong
8/31/2017
受惠於淨利息收益按年躍升41%,加上東盟機構淨經營收入同比增長15%等因素帶挈,中銀香港(2388)上半年持續經營業務盈利按年大增24.5%至146.27億元,創2002年上市以來新高,若連同出售集友銀行獲利,中期盈利達172.16億元。因應出售行動及百年行慶,董事會宣佈派發特別息每股0.095元(總支出10億元),連中期息0.545元,每股合計派0.64元。
連結
連結
德銀指大新系業績有韌性,估值吸引
Man-cheong
8/25/2017
德銀報告表示,大新系公布又一份韌性的業績,勝該行預期6-8%,主要源自環比和同比6%和8%的撥備前經營溢利升幅,壞賬顯著下跌和聯營重慶銀行(1963)的較高貢獻。在等待其會否有更多企業行動,大新銀行(2356)和大新金融(440)在特息後已跑輸恒指3%和7%,估值仍吸引維持買入。
Dah Sing
海通稱大新金融近期調整過度,目標價65.2元
Man-cheong
8/25/2017
海通國際重申大新金融(440)「買入」評級,目標價65.2元,相當於分類加總之下市賬率1.05倍的大新銀行、0.6倍一般保險、1倍現金和債券等,再予11.1%控股折讓,著名銀行分析員陳昔典認為近期股價調整過度,又料早前賣產資金可帶來5%年回報和2018-19年度7-8%純利貢獻。
海通國際表示,大新銀行(2356)半年貸款增長3.4%,管理層估計下半年動力相若,該行升其2017-19年貸款複合年增長至7.9%,降淨息差展望至1.94-2.02%,又上調淨費用收入預期至13.8%,降信貸成本至0.28-0.29%,升目標價至19.55元相當1.05倍市賬率。
Dah Sing
海通國際表示,大新銀行(2356)半年貸款增長3.4%,管理層估計下半年動力相若,該行升其2017-19年貸款複合年增長至7.9%,降淨息差展望至1.94-2.02%,又上調淨費用收入預期至13.8%,降信貸成本至0.28-0.29%,升目標價至19.55元相當1.05倍市賬率。
Dah Sing
大新銀行中期純利升幅媲美恒生
Man-cheong
8/23/2017
大新銀行(2356)按時公布中期業績,半年貸款增長3.4%,遜於同業,淨利息收入增6.3%,但在貸款減值虧損大減51.4%帶動下,純利按年增21.1%,增速可與恒生(11)、星展香港和渣打香港媲美。大新金融(440)純利則勁升4.3倍,持續經營業務升23%,兩者中期息同升一成。
大新系業績算是不俗,大新銀行(2356)淨息差維持於1.94%,股東回報率也改善至11%,一級資本比率也上升0.4個百分點至13.1%,整體比率17.8%,貸款減值回落比諸創興(1111)和匯豐香港等值得慶幸,重慶銀行(1963)貢獻則只略升5.7%,待其回A股勢被攤薄應予分派。 Dah Sing
大新系業績算是不俗,大新銀行(2356)淨息差維持於1.94%,股東回報率也改善至11%,一級資本比率也上升0.4個百分點至13.1%,整體比率17.8%,貸款減值回落比諸創興(1111)和匯豐香港等值得慶幸,重慶銀行(1963)貢獻則只略升5.7%,待其回A股勢被攤薄應予分派。 Dah Sing
舊產能未消化 重慶銀行不良貸款率增
Man-cheong
8/22/2017
重慶銀行(1963)上周五發布中期業績,淨利潤按年上升10.8%至22.49億元(人民幣‧下同),惟不良貸款率上升29點子(1%等於100點子)至1.25%,該行風險管理部總經理陳瑤表示,該行不良貸款率低於全國的1.74%;產業結構調整和去產能仍未完成,不良貸款率仍未會到達拐點。
該行獲中銀監批准發行A股,行長冉海陵稱,發行A股有助補充資金和持續發展,中證監正受理申請。
連結
該行獲中銀監批准發行A股,行長冉海陵稱,發行A股有助補充資金和持續發展,中證監正受理申請。
連結
馬雲借收購美國萬通港澳業務股份布局保險業
Man-cheong
8/21/2017
表面上看,這僅僅是一樁劃算的交易。以該交易價格計算的美國萬通港澳業務市賬率為1.9倍,和香港上市的中資保險公司的平均水平相當,因此對馬雲來說交易價格可算合理。香港保險業巨頭友邦保險控股有限公司(AIA Group Ltd., 1299.HK, 簡稱:友邦保險)的市賬率為2.5倍。
德銀料港銀中期盈利升一成,維持大新系首選
Man-cheong
8/03/2017
德銀早前表示,港銀受惠上半年加息今年以來表示良好,與MSCI香港指數同步升21%,中期業績的基本面可望受惠較高息差、較佳市場活動、季節性低營運成本和良好資產質素,雖然核心盈利可望環比和同比分別增長11%和9%,但維持中銀和東亞「沽售」評級,恒生「中性」,大新系則續是該行首選。
歐智華:回購成資本管理恒常工具 每半年檢視
Man-cheong
7/31/2017
滙豐控股(00005)宣布第三輪股份回購計劃,涉及最多20億美元(約156億港元)的股份,預期今年下半年完成。行政總裁歐智華在電話會議中表示,集團今後將以回購作為資本有效管理的其中一種恒常工具,而管理層將每半年檢視一次回購的條件及可能性。
他又表示,滙控暫不會考慮增加派息,今年全年的派息水平將維持在每股0.51美元不變。他強調,回購是資本管理模式,而增加派息與否則視乎盈利前景。
連結
他又表示,滙控暫不會考慮增加派息,今年全年的派息水平將維持在每股0.51美元不變。他強調,回購是資本管理模式,而增加派息與否則視乎盈利前景。
連結
大新推Hello Kitty信用卡搶客
Man-cheong
7/31/2017
花旗料中銀香港中期派特息,恒生增季度息
Man-cheong
7/28/2017
花旗報告表示,2017中期業績料中銀香港(2388)可能在淨息差、貸款增長和利息跑贏同業,料其的過剩資本加上額外資本回報可派0.3-0.5元中期特別息,恒生(11)或將上調季度息至1.2元,而東亞(23)則因較低資本而維持保守派息,或提供較同業為佳的戰略澄清,但或減低併購可能性。
大新金融跌近2%失五十天線,穆迪予港銀行業前景負面
Man-cheong
7/27/2017
評級機構穆迪發表研究報告指,予香港經濟「Aa2穩定」評級,包括寬鬆貨幣環境、上升
中企業及家庭借貸及物業價格升值,將會影響香港銀行業的信賃狀況,因此穆迪予香港銀行業未來12至18個月「負面」前景展望。
連結
中企業及家庭借貸及物業價格升值,將會影響香港銀行業的信賃狀況,因此穆迪予香港銀行業未來12至18個月「負面」前景展望。
連結
多間大行掉頭減按揭息率
Man-cheong
7/20/2017
金管局5月「訓導」銀行加按息後,近月銀行故態復萌,整體按息出現趨跌情況,以滙豐銀行為例,貸款額150萬元以上之住宅按揭利率,可低於1個月同業拆息(H)加1.38厘。
不過150萬元以下之貸款利率仍然為H+1.4厘,業界分析,上述做法有助向金管局解釋;此外,中銀香港、恒生銀行、渣打香港亦提供低至H+1.38厘之按揭利率。
連結
不過150萬元以下之貸款利率仍然為H+1.4厘,業界分析,上述做法有助向金管局解釋;此外,中銀香港、恒生銀行、渣打香港亦提供低至H+1.38厘之按揭利率。
連結
重庆银行获批发行5000万境外优先股
Man-cheong
7/13/2017
证券时报记者获悉,重庆银行境外非公开发行优先股计划已获重庆银监局批准。根据批复,重庆银行获批发行不超过5000万股境外优先股,募集资金不超过人民币50亿元人民币或等值外币,并按照有关规定计入其他一级资本。
去年12月至今,包括哈尔滨银行、邮储银行、招商银行在内的7家银行陆续披露境外优先股发行计划,累计拟发行额达965亿元,其中5家银行在今年3月下旬陆续披露发行计划,累计拟发行额逾800亿元。
http://www.stcn.com/2017/0713/13488856.shtml
去年12月至今,包括哈尔滨银行、邮储银行、招商银行在内的7家银行陆续披露境外优先股发行计划,累计拟发行额达965亿元,其中5家银行在今年3月下旬陆续披露发行计划,累计拟发行额逾800亿元。
http://www.stcn.com/2017/0713/13488856.shtml
匯豐將大新銀行列為首選股
Man-cheong
7/12/2017
匯豐表示,港銀今年以來已升20%,跑贏恒指和金融股13和14個百分點,雖然淨息差將回升,但市場或低估美國量鬆的過剩流動性需時消退,變相亦高估淨息差回升速度,該行料正常化需時兩年,將行業首選由中銀香港(2388)轉至大新銀行(2356),目標價18.1元,因中銀已反映大量正面因素。
Dah Sing
Dah Sing
Dah Sing Financial should ante up its special dividend to $10
Man-cheong
7/10/2017
By Man-cheong HUI (translated by KK CHAN and Patrick LEE)
On June 19, Dah Sing Financial (0440) announced the completion of the “Dah Sing-Life “ deal, i.e. the closing sale of its Hong Kong life-insurance business, while having received $8.03 billion as the proceeds of the said deal from the purchaser, Thaihot Investment, a mainland company.
Since then, Dah Sing has called for a directors’ meeting, scheduled to be held on June 26th, for the purpose of duly passing a resolution, concerning the distribution of a special cash dividend of $6.60 per share, as previously proposed.
While it looks set to be cash-rich, even after the special cash dividend distribution has been implemented, and given that a significant price discount-to-NAV would still be evident in the Dah Sing Group of companies' share valuation after the distribution, we hereby urge the board of directors, to either ante up the special cash dividend amount once and for all, or, to make an additional special cash dividend distribution happen immediately thereafter. In this connection, shareholders are strongly advised to proactively voice out their specific concerns, as appropriate.
As I’ve pointed out earlier, while Thaihot Investment has been expected to come up with the required remittance of funds to close the deal without too much of a problem, it’s but a matter of time that the Dah Sing Life deal would then be approved and completed accordingly.
As it turned out, the Hong Kong Dah Sing Life insurance business deal had been completed by mid-June; whereas similar insurance business in Macau, although maybe on a much smaller scale, has yet to be completed. As per Thaihot Investment’s recent press release, however, it is envisioned that the approval from the Macau authorities would be granted soon enough, while Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, the vice-chairman of Dah Sing Bank, will be participating the signing ceremony.
According to the announcement from Dah Sing Financial, though, the net proceeds after expenses, resulting from the Hong Kong insurance business deal, is about $7.95 billion, while enabling a $3.5 billion pre-tax income.
The use of the proceeds have been outlined, as follows:
1) $2.2 billion will be paid out as a special dividend;
2) $1.45 billion will be used to increase the capital base of the general insurance businesses;
3) $600 million to $1.0 billion will be used to subscribe additional Tier 1 capital to be issued by Dah Sing Bank; and
4) no less than $3.3 billion of the remaining proceeds will be used as general working capital of Dah Sing Financial, and/or for re-investment in its businesses.
As I’ve noted before, too, Dah Sing Financial no longer requires to maintain a huge cash-capital base after the life insurance sale, and as a result, its cash position should be strong enough to distribute a special cash dividend of as much as $20 per share.
In fact, now the use of the proceeds appears to have coincided with the rationale of the aforesaid argument.
For example, out of the approximate $8 billion proceeds, reinvesting in Dah Sing Bank, the crown jewel of the Group, requires just as little as $600 million to $1 billion. On the other hand, as much as $3.3 billion, or as high as $9.85 per share, have been designated for its working capital sourcing. Which means if the same is chosen as a means of distribution, at least $16.45 per share as special cash dividend can materialize.
Yet, whether or not Dah Sing Financial should maintain up to $1.45 billion as cash-on-hand, is debatable.
Here is why.
A review of Dah Sing-Life deal’s announcement would most certainly indicate, that the disposal of Hong Kong and Macau insurance businesses already registered a net asset value that could be worth $3.7 billion, while the net asset value of the remaining general insurance businesses in the Group, would just worth $700 million.
That said, given a saturated insurance market, a decreasing trend in demand for high-profit margin and capital, for it to have their capital base dramatically elevated to twice as much as its NAV, is far from realistic. This is notwithstanding the fact that an increase in capital stands to enhance the probability of a potential merger-and-acquisition (M&A).
A Deutsche Bank report has pointed out, that the recent completion of the Dah Sing Life Hong Kong business deal should help eliminate the risk of the deal falling through, thereby enabling an upbeat outlook. After the special dividend, it says, there remains a lot of excess cash capital at the Dah Sing Financial level, something equivalent to as much as $9.85 per share, or, 15% of equity, as at 2016 second half.
Such a scenario, it says, is able to induce investors looking forward to a higher dividend rewards, in the long run. This has made Deutsche Bank choose Dah Sing Financial and Dah Sing Banking (2356) as their top picks among its Hong Kong bank counterparts. Not to mention, that the valuation is still far from high, given a high propensity for being a long-term M&A target.
JP Morgan also notes that the completion of the insurance sale, in part, is set to render investors a peace of mind, resulting in a positive market sentiment in the short run.
Yet it is quick to point out, that a special dividend of as low as $6.60 per share, is not only far from its plausible forecast of $12.00, but it also means something like 63% of the total proceeds from the deal, resulting in an excess-cash-capital scenario in the part of Dah Sing Financial more severe than expected, triggering a more negative shareholder return forecast (lower than the current 30-50 points projection) outlook than envisaged. A payout ratio exceeding 10% is set to protect the share price from downward momentum, notwithstanding.
These two and other reports show that financial houses are mostly of the opinion that after a special dividend of $6.60, there is still excess cash capital in Dah Sing Financial. The marketplace appears to have reached a consensus on that, too.
After the partial completion of the Dah Sing Life deal, its share price rose only 5% and Dah Sing Banking 1.4% (as at June 27).
Let’s do some simple 'maths'.
Dah Sing Financials holds 74.5% stake of Dah Sing Banking, that is, $51.40 per share. The company’s cash on hand, i.e. $23.70 per share, represents half of it. Hence it is safe to say that there is at least 15% valuation discount, even taking the value of Dah Sing Financial’s other assets and listing status into account
As at the end of 2016, Dah Sing Banking’s capital adequacy ratio is 18.3%, and Tier 1 capital ratio 12.7%. It issued USD 250 million subordinated debt same year. In that respect, it is in a better financial shape than, say, East Asia Bank (23), a bank peer of a larger scale.
The insurance policy distribution agreement signed not long ago should be able to bring forth an additional fee income in the next 15 years. And its liquid assets table is solid. All of this points to one thing. The Group doesn’t need such an ample amount of cash on hand. Instead, they'd need to come up with an answer to the following question: how to manage their capital in a better way?
After all, this, as a longer perspective, would be the essence of the matter.
Godahsing.com has always advocated unfolding the hidden value of the Dah Sing Group. By encouraging dialog and positive feedback, we’ve assisted the shareholders and the public to have a better understanding of the Group’s potentials. So far more than 250 investors signed up, and more than $230,000 donation received (planned to re-donate to non-profits eventually). Those who have agreed to act together would represent a total holding of more than $100 million of Dah Sing Group shares. Besides, our initiatives are gaining endorsements by institutions.
Here is how.
First, we advocate that Dah Sing Financial should distribute special cash dividend as much as they can.
Second, the Group should restructure by way of distributing in specie of Dah Sing Banking and the Bank of Chongqing (1963).
Third, the Group should consider facilitating MDah Sing Financial should ante up its special dividend to $10&A potentials in the mid-term.
While agreeing that a special dividend has improved the trading multiples of Dah Sing Financial and Dah Sing Banking, the recent Deutsche Bank report mentioned above has also asserted that further corporate actions could help unfold more value in both companies.
For example, distributing in specie of the two banks can uplift the trading volume of Dah Sing companies’ shares and align the interest of Dah Sing Banking with Dah Sing Financial, its mother company.
Not to mention, that the remaining insurance business could thus be put up for disposal.
All in all, we are far from satisfied with the amount of the special dividend.
We urge the board of Dah Sing Financial to consider ante up it to at least $9.85 per share.
I will send copies of this article, by mail, to the directors of Dah Sing Financials and the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. Shareholders.
As a genuine gesture, please express your much-needed views by fax (25985052), by phone, or by mail. The Group’s registered address: 36th Floor, Everbright Center. Please note that the building has been renamed.
Man-cheong HUI is the founder of Godashing.com. HUI has had holdings in shares of the aforesaid companies. Dah Sing , Library
Elliott增持東亞至8%
Man-cheong
7/07/2017
向東亞銀行(023)興訟的美資對沖基金Elliott,密密增持東亞股份,據聯交所權益披露顯示,截至本月4日已增持至8%水平,對上一次紀錄為7.12%。
Elliott發言人表示,作為長期股東,相信若東亞在企業治理與整體管理上作出根本和重大改善,有潛力釋放其巨大股東價值。東亞發言人則表示沒有回應。
去年7月Elliott第二度向東亞興訟,指東亞與Criteria及三井住友過往的配股協議,是基於不正當目的訂立,要求撤銷部份剩餘協議。案件7月18日在高等法院開審。
連結
Elliott發言人表示,作為長期股東,相信若東亞在企業治理與整體管理上作出根本和重大改善,有潛力釋放其巨大股東價值。東亞發言人則表示沒有回應。
去年7月Elliott第二度向東亞興訟,指東亞與Criteria及三井住友過往的配股協議,是基於不正當目的訂立,要求撤銷部份剩餘協議。案件7月18日在高等法院開審。
連結
德銀上調大新金融目標價至72元 大新銀行18.5元
Man-cheong
7/04/2017
德銀報告表示,加息主題是今年關鍵焦點而營運趨勢至今具支持,但即使港銀收惠加息,盈利改善也是逐步的,惟個別股價特別中銀香港(2388)強勢,只包含正面的不現實期望已反映在股價身上,該股現價已1.6倍市賬率、14倍市盈率和12%預期市盈率,將評級降至「沽售」,維持大新系「買入」評級。
德銀表示,港銀行業現以1.7倍市賬率、15倍市盈率和12倍股東回報率交投,乃較美國大選以來的1.47倍市賬率明顯改善,可見將來加息的好處已反映,而近期中銀香港急升並不合理,大新系估值則仍不高,分別升大新金融和大新銀行(2356)目標價14.2%和8.8%,至72元和18.5元。
德銀認為,在中資銀行遠較大力帶動資產增長之下,港銀的行業狀況已明顯轉變,長遠的主要下行趨勢是貸款增長將被較低利差所抵銷。過去廿年港銀貸存增長2倍和3.5倍,貸存比率也由147%改善至70%,料行業資本較充足和較低的槓桿,已較佳地裝備面對任何挑戰,惟一警告是其與中國更集中和更緊密。
Dah Sing
德銀表示,港銀行業現以1.7倍市賬率、15倍市盈率和12倍股東回報率交投,乃較美國大選以來的1.47倍市賬率明顯改善,可見將來加息的好處已反映,而近期中銀香港急升並不合理,大新系估值則仍不高,分別升大新金融和大新銀行(2356)目標價14.2%和8.8%,至72元和18.5元。
德銀認為,在中資銀行遠較大力帶動資產增長之下,港銀的行業狀況已明顯轉變,長遠的主要下行趨勢是貸款增長將被較低利差所抵銷。過去廿年港銀貸存增長2倍和3.5倍,貸存比率也由147%改善至70%,料行業資本較充足和較低的槓桿,已較佳地裝備面對任何挑戰,惟一警告是其與中國更集中和更緊密。
雅虎財經:加息買銀行股
Man-cheong
6/29/2017
另類之選還有大新金融,此股有點像國浩集團,大股東擅長捕捉做刁機會。近期代表作是高價出售大新人壽兼派6.6元特別息,現時該行持有的重慶銀行股份及大新銀行,均具備出售價值,難怪每隔一段時日市場便炒作此股的重組概念。始終純本地銀行股已買少見少,不過投資者憧憬大新銀行賣盤已拉鋸了五、六年,入手此股雖然風險有限,但就要有穩守一段長時間的心理準備了。
連結
連結
Fed ‘Stress Tests’ Clear All Banks to Issue Payouts to Shareholders
Man-cheong
6/29/2017
Wednesday’s results mark the first time since the annual tests began in 2011 that all firms passed. That reflects a turning point and could herald a return to precrisis days when banks were reliable dividend payers and shareholders flocked to them.
On average, the companies requested payouts that are near 100% of their expected earnings over the next year, up from 65% last year, senior Fed officials said.
Link
On average, the companies requested payouts that are near 100% of their expected earnings over the next year, up from 65% last year, senior Fed officials said.
Link
許文昌:大新金融應增派10元特別股息
Man-cheong
6/28/2017
大新金融(0440)6月19日公布,向深圳上市的泰禾集團出售香港和壽險業務並已獲支付80.3億元,並擬於6月29日董事會討論派發每股6.6元特別股息,鑑於派發有關特息之後集團資金依然過剩,且集團估值折讓仍然存在,我們促請大新董事會增派或稍後再次派發特別股息,並呼籲各股東積極表態。
正如筆者早前所指,泰禾最終匯款到港所以審批人壽出售交易只是時間問題,最終在6月中旬宣布完成交收香港大新人壽部份,而出售規模遠較小的澳門相關保險業務的交易則仍在進行中,不過參照早前泰禾簽約協議的新聞稿,預計不久後經澳門當局審批完成,而大新銀行副主席王祖興出席是次簽約儀式。
根據大新金融公告,出售香港業務扣除開支所得款項淨額約79.5億元,可獲得除稅前收益35億元,用途列明:1) 22億元派特息;2) 14.5億元擬用於增加一般保險業務的資本基礎:3) 約6-10億元擬認購大新銀行額外一級資本;4) 及餘下不少於 33 億元作一般資金或再投資其業務。
正如筆者早已指出,大新金融出售人壽業務後並沒有保留大量資金的需要,足可派發20元以上特別股息,事實上今次資金安排正正突顯情況,近80億資金實際再投資於旗下最重要資產的大新銀行只涉區區6-10億元,33億元即每股9.85元竟為一般營運資金,若於今次派特息至少可增至每股16.45元。
大新金融保留14.5億元也有可議之處,若參考去年人壽出售通函,被出售的香港和澳門壽險資產淨值合共37億元,餘下的一般保險資產淨值僅為7億元,而且有關業務市場相對飽和、利潤和資金需求均低,現階段是否有需要大幅以其資產淨值兩倍增資成疑,當然另一方面看,增資也可提高未來併購價值。
德意志銀行已表示,大新金融成功出售人壽業務將舒緩交易可能失敗的風險,然而扣除特別股息,大新金融層面將繼續維持大量過剩現金資本,相當於每股9.85元或2016年下半年15%股本,長期而言將予投資者較高派息率的希望,維持大新系為本港銀行股首選,且估值在長期併購因素之下並不高。
摩根大通也表示,大新金融完成人壽交易將去除市場有關交易失敗的憂慮,短期有利氣氛,然而每股6.6元的特別股息低於該行預期的12元,只相當於63%的整體出售收益,故令大新金融更為資本過剩兼造成較不可取的基本股東回報率展望(低於目前預測30-50點子),但逾10厘股息率限制股價下行。
可見券商紛紛認同大新金融派發6.6元特別息之後資金依然過多,而自大新金融人壽完成交易,截至6月27日股價僅升5%,同期大新銀行也升1.4%,前者目前持有的74.6%大新銀行股權已相當於每股51.4元,現有的23.7元現金只反映一半,未計及剩餘業務和上市地位,仍存在至少一成半折讓。
而大新銀行截至2016年12月底止,整體資本充足率為18.3%,一級資本比率為12.7%,也於同年發行2.5億美元次級債,目前資本狀況已高於更大型的東亞銀行(23),何況其新的人壽分銷協議可為其未來15年帶來額外費用收入,加上流動資產狀況穩健,長遠而言提高資本管理能力才是要事。
Godahsing股東倡議活動一直致力提倡大新系釋放價值,並通過鼓勵對話和積極回饋讓股東和公眾人士了解大新系潛藏的可能,至今參與聯署的投資者逾250人,贊助款項逾23萬元,並計劃最終捐予各大慈善機構,而願意共同行動的大新系股份市值已遠超1億元,我們最初的倡議也獲得個別機構的認可。
我們一直主張大新金融應盡派特別股息,其次應考慮系內重組,包括實物分派大新銀行和重慶銀行(1963)股份,並中長期考慮併購。德銀近期指,大新金融派息雖然有助收窄大新系差價,但更多企業行動有助釋放更多價值——其中實物分派銀行,有助提高銀行成交、讓母子利益一致且剩餘的一般保險可以出售。
總括而言,我們並不滿意今次的特別股息金額,促請大新金融董事會應該額外增派至少每股9.85元的特別股息,筆者將以函件模式抄送文件予大新金融董事和東京三菱UFJ,也呼籲各界股東可通過傳真25985052、電話以至發信予已更名的集團註冊地址即光大中心36樓表達意見,期望更多的價值釋放。
*作者為Godahsing股東倡議活動發起人,並持有大新系財務權益。
Dah Sing
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Library
匯豐升大新金融目標價至76.1元
Man-cheong
6/21/2017
匯豐表示,由於大新金融(440)完成出售香港人壽業務且有清晰資金用途,將人壽和其他業務的折讓由三成收窄至5%,上調目標價9%至76.1元,當中大新銀行(2356)由每股相當於53.3元降至52.8元為1倍市賬率,而人壽和其他業務值23.3元,相當於19%上升空間,維持「買入」 。
匯豐稱,大新銀行(2356)旗下大新銀行將發行6-10億元的額外一級資本,料將推升一級資本充足比率0.5個分點,但會造成較高利息支出,故降其2017-19年盈利預測0-1%,維持「中性」,目標價微降10仙至16.9元,料核心銀行業務值1倍市賬率即13.6元,重慶銀行則值3.3元。 Dah Sing
匯豐稱,大新銀行(2356)旗下大新銀行將發行6-10億元的額外一級資本,料將推升一級資本充足比率0.5個分點,但會造成較高利息支出,故降其2017-19年盈利預測0-1%,維持「中性」,目標價微降10仙至16.9元,料核心銀行業務值1倍市賬率即13.6元,重慶銀行則值3.3元。 Dah Sing
德銀:大新金融應研實物分派大新銀行並出售一般保險
Man-cheong
6/21/2017
德銀表示,大新金融(440)成功出售人壽業務將舒緩交易可能失敗的風險,然而扣除特別股息,大新金融層面將繼續維持大量過剩現金資本,相當於每股9.85元或2016年下半年15%股本,長期而言將予投資者較高派息率的希望,維持大新系為本港銀行股首選,且估值在長期併購因素之下並不高。
德銀稱,大新金融特息金額高於該行預期令私有化大新銀行(2356)可能性消失,而加強銀行資本或反映主要股東繼續經營銀行的意願,雖然特息有助收窄大新系差價,但更多企業行動有助釋放更多價值——其中就是實物分派銀行,有助提高銀行成交、讓母子利益一致且剩餘的一般保險可以潛在出售。
Dah Sing
德銀稱,大新金融特息金額高於該行預期令私有化大新銀行(2356)可能性消失,而加強銀行資本或反映主要股東繼續經營銀行的意願,雖然特息有助收窄大新系差價,但更多企業行動有助釋放更多價值——其中就是實物分派銀行,有助提高銀行成交、讓母子利益一致且剩餘的一般保險可以潛在出售。
Dah Sing
高盛維持大新金融中性評級 息率達12厘
Man-cheong
6/21/2017
高盛調整大新金融(440)2017年/18年/19年/20年度每股盈利+188%/-8%/-7%/-6%以反映出售人壽業務,該行維持其「中性」評級,目標價下調1.7%至57.4元,反映收入減少下的85%分類加總和15%併購價值,現以0.85倍賬面值交投,2017年息率達12%
Dah Sing
摩通指大新金融特息遜預期,資本更為過盛
Man-cheong
6/20/2017
摩根大通表示,大新金融(440)完成出售人壽交易將去除市場有關交易失敗的憂慮,短期有利氣氛,然而每股6.6元的特別股息低於該行預期的12元,只相當於63%的整體出售收益,故令其更為資本過盛兼較不取為的基本股東回報率展望(低於目前預測30-50點子),但逾10厘股息率限制股價下行。
摩通又稱,新的人壽分銷協議優於大新銀行(2356)目前安排,而未來15年的固定費用相當於每年額外費用收入1.73億元,為2016年度經營溢利7.5%,且來自大新金融(440)的額外一級資本將提供更多業務擴展彈性,但對比同業關注其今年度其淨息差和基本盈利增長,維持兩者「中性」評級。 Dah Sing
摩通又稱,新的人壽分銷協議優於大新銀行(2356)目前安排,而未來15年的固定費用相當於每年額外費用收入1.73億元,為2016年度經營溢利7.5%,且來自大新金融(440)的額外一級資本將提供更多業務擴展彈性,但對比同業關注其今年度其淨息差和基本盈利增長,維持兩者「中性」評級。 Dah Sing
泰禾投資完成收購大新人壽壽險業務
Man-cheong
6/19/2017
有關澳門人壽的交易,以及與澳門商業銀行的銀保協議,預計不久後經澳門當局審批完成。簽約儀式已順利舉行。泰禾投資董事長黃其森及大新銀行副主席王祖興出席是次簽約儀式。泰禾宣布委任蔡惠儀為大新人壽行政總裁。
大新金融完成出售大新人壽 豪派特別息6.6元
Man-cheong
6/19/2017
标普:予重庆银行(01963)“BBB-/A-3”评级 展望“稳定”
Man-cheong
6/15/2017
根据标普统计,重庆银行拥有稳定的市场份额,2016年占当地贷款市场份额的6%及存款市场份额的7%。虽然就全国范围来看该市场份额仍然较小,但其在标普2015年按总资产计中国前50大银行中排名第44位。
此外,在标普看来,受其承保偏好及资产质量的驱动,重庆银行的风险水平将与行业平均水平保持一致。
連結
此外,在标普看来,受其承保偏好及资产质量的驱动,重庆银行的风险水平将与行业平均水平保持一致。
連結
請共同參與點算大新系持股
Man-cheong
6/12/2017
2016年4月創建大新系股東倡議活動Godahsing至今,已逾240名投資者聯署,捐款眾籌數目已逾16萬港元,為準備活動轉化至下一階段,正在點算參與投資者共同控制的大新金融(440)股份數目,數額非常驚人,願意共同行動的其他股東煩請告知:[email protected]
當然也同樣歡迎大新銀行(2356)的股東共同參與,畢竟活動涉及母子股份,然據Godahsing暫時掌握的股份數目,大新金融(440)持股遠遠較多,而且觀察股東周年大會投票紀錄,在未有組織之下,大新金融竟有兩成一涉5700萬股投票不支持一般性配股議案,相當於總股本一成七,值得留意。
當然也同樣歡迎大新銀行(2356)的股東共同參與,畢竟活動涉及母子股份,然據Godahsing暫時掌握的股份數目,大新金融(440)持股遠遠較多,而且觀察股東周年大會投票紀錄,在未有組織之下,大新金融竟有兩成一涉5700萬股投票不支持一般性配股議案,相當於總股本一成七,值得留意。
Boardroom Changes in Dah Sing Group Set to Trigger Re-rating
Man-cheong
6/05/2017
by Man-cheong HUI (translated by KK CHAN and Patrick LEE)
Alongside the rally of other local banking shares, share prices of the Dah Sing Group’s listed companies have recently edged upward, moving a bit closer to its 52-week-high price seen earlier.
As the founder and activist of Godahsing.com, the website advocating actions beneficial to the Group’s shareholders, I lately attended the Group’s annual general meeting (“AGM”), specifically taking advantage of the opportunity to raise questions, as well as making suggestions to the Group’s top management.
Given the recent changes in the directorships of Dah Sing Banking (2356), although not much publicized, I’m convinced that the time is ripe for a significant upward re-rating, in the valuation of the Dah Sing Group of companies as a whole.
Relative to how the Heng Sang Index movement has demonstrated this year, the Group’s share prices may have somewhat underperformed thus far. But now it looks set to be improving all the time. That said, I ‘m glad to have picked Dah Sing Financial (0440), and its subsidiary Dah Sing Banking, as two of my top picks for the Year.
Here’s why.
Late May saw Dah Sing Financial announcing a further extension of the “Dah Sing Life disposal” deal-closing deadline (originally set to be on June 2nd). As disclosed, it was the delay in the forex remittance for the deal settlement, that Thaihot Investment, the purchaser, is supposed to come up with way beforehand, that has inevitably caused the extension. It eventually took as lengthy as nine months to complete the remittance. Hence the relevant approval so deferred.
In addition, the transitional change in the oversight authority, from Office of the Commissioner of Insurance, the government agency in charge, to Independent Insurance Authority that took place as recently as June, has also aggravated the matter.
Lest we forget, however, such deadline extension is not unexpected by the marketplace. Not to mention that the resulting extension still falls within the 15-month maximum period stipulated, thereby not requiring the another negotiation of, say, a brand new deadline. In essence, the completion of the deal looks set to be just around the corner.
The Dah Sing Group AGM was held on 26th of May. I attended it and came to realize that, Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong, Chairman of the Group’s Board of Directors, as opposed to his former behavior as a frequent attendee, ended up absent this time.
Knowing that the “Dah Sing Life disposal” deal has yet to complete, I chose not to read out any well-prepared open letter on the spot. Instead, I reiterated Godahsing.com’s stand point, raising appropriate questions about the deal, and demanding, as before, the management to be committed to delivering a one-time, special cash-dividend distribution. Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, then executive director of Dah Sing Banking and son of Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong, replied that both parties remained confident in the forward-looking deal completion.
In fact, media of late reported that the purchaser Thaihot Investment had already remitted the money from China. My reliable sources also hinted the same, that the money is at hand. All it matters now is, the deal is due to complete, pending the official approval from the said authority-in-charge. Likewise, special cash-dividend distribution announcement is anticipated to materialize shortly thereafter. The focus of the matter should then be shifted toward, as to how the eventual Dah Sing Group restructure is going to turn out to, as well as on how it aims to handle their non-core assets, including Dah Sing Banking’s associate, Bank of Chongqing (1963), a mainland China bank, the escalating risk exposure of which is increasingly seen.
Prior to this, I’ve repeatedly pointed out, that the Group’s holding of the shares in Bank of Chongqing is nothing but one of the negative factors, that stands to drag down the entire share valuation in the Dah Sing Group as a whole.
A case in point is as follows. Recently Wheelock (0020) and The Wharf (0004) announced to return to shareholders, all of the proceeds from the sale of i-Cable Communications (1097), in the manner of two-time distribution of dividend in specie. Such an example has established a precedent, for which I’ve hitherto advocated. That is to say, disposing of Bank of Chongqing by the Group in a similar manner to the aforesaid, is likely to be a wise solution to the price-dragging problem so caused. As a result, I brought this up during the AGM. Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang, an executive director of Dah Sing Group, responded in greater detail and is worth mentioning. He emphasized that Bank of Chongqing is a long-term investment, and as such, no plans of its disposal and relevant returns of similar proceed in terms of dividend in specie, has been contemplated.
I noted that the top management of Dah Sing Group, as a rule of thumb, has been as prudent as it can be. Yet, acting for and on behalf of the stand points of as many as 230 investors in the matter, I reiterated our expectation of a one-time distribution of as few as $20.00 special cash-dividend, from Dah Sing Financial alone, and also our continuous demand for the need to minimize the Group’s risk exposure, specifically in the mainland China market.
I was, to a certain extent, satisfied with their responses. After the meeting, however, I was surprised to find out, that as much as 21% of the Dah Sing Financial’s shareholders, although not acting on a concerted effort, had voted against the Group’s general resolution on the allotment issue. Not to mention, that the late announcement of the changes of board directorships that came to light right after the meeting, was, itself, a much bigger surprise.
Noteworthy, Dah Sing Financial, the parent company, disclosed after the meeting, that Mr. Nicholas John Mayhew, executive director and head of the subsidiary Dah Sing Bank’s treasury and corporate finance departments, was to be transferred to the listed Dah Sing Banking, to be assuming the positions of executive director and deputy chief executive therein. Besides, executive director Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang is to be appointed deputy chief executive of Dah Sing Bank, and will assume the responsibilities as the group chief financial and operating officer. In short, from 1st of June onwards, there will be one executive director less than before, probably a downsizing effort in the anticipation of the sale of Dah Sing Life due to complete soon enough. As matters now stand, there will be three executive directors in the 10-member board. The bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ will still have two non-executive directorships.
More importantly, in the listed subsidiary, Dah Sing Banking, Mr. Derek Hon-Hing Wong, vice chairman and executive director, will assume the responsibilities of managing director and chief executive as well. As I pointed out earlier, Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang, an executive director in charge of financial matters, will also act as chief financial and operating officer. There will still be four executive directors.
Yet there are more surprises. Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, the heir apparent of the Wong family, will resign from the positions of managing director and chief executive of the listed Dah Sing Banking, and take over what Mr. Gary Pak-Ling Wang left behind, the positions of managing director and chief executive in Dah Sing Bank, the subsidiary.
The immediate market response was lukewarm.
It might have been because of the names of the listed Dah Sing Banking and Dah Sing Bank, the subsidiary, are almost identical, making it hard for investors to distinguish who from who, and therefore what the difference it could have made. Given that Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, 47, has already been executive director and vice chairman of Dah Sing Bank for years, the new arrangement cannot be easily understood unless there are mistakes made. Otherwise, such arrangement is meant to serve only as a preempt action, forewarning the marketplace that it will be him who is to leave the board of the listed company. After all, as and when the 76-year-old chairman Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong chooses to retire, there will be no more members of the Wong family on the boards of the two listed companies of the Dah Sing Group. Subtly the characteristics of the family business are set to be fading away soon.
In 1957 businessman Mr. Shih-sing Wong bought the stake in Dah Sing Bank, a bank founded as early as a decade ago, by Mr. Yuan-loong Yang, a friend from his home county. Later on, Wong became the majority shareholder. The bank continued to expand under the leadership of three generations of Wongs, Mr. Shih-sing Wong himself, Mr. David Shou-Yeh Wong, his third son and the current chairman, and Mr. Harold Tsu-Hing Wong, the grandson. As an independent bank, Dah Sing Bank expanded to the current size almost single-handedly, an achievement that is praiseworthy. However, compared with the banking peers in Hong Kong who is now enjoying backing from big financial groups, the Group’s status quo shall no longer be in the same league. Currently, three executive directors have taken up identical positions in the two listed companies of the Dah Sing Group. A strong indicator of a willingness to stay put.
Back in November 2012, Chong Hing Bank (1111), then not yet acquired by Yuexiu Enterprises of Guangzhou, announced that Mr. Lit-Chi Liu, son of the founding father, was to resign as chief executive officer, and Mr. Andrew Liu, the heir of the family in the third generation, was to step down from the management at the same time. This news pushed the share price of the bank, jumping by more than 25% in just two short days. The bank finally changed hand in October 2013. Supported by the new China-owned parent group, the business of the bank expanded handsomely, with revenue doubled in just three years’ time.
In short, following closely the former footsteps of its peers is set to be a logical step for Dah Sing Group. The boardroom changes, so far under-analyzed by the media, can be a trigger for re-rating in its share prices. Lately, Dah Sing Banking fast approached its 52-week high, reaching out for $16.00 and above. This way its tangible price-to-book value is equivalent to as high as 1 times, with its return on equity is now almost as much as 10%.
Having said that, I believe that the Group is undoubtedly a good candidate for restructuring, or a potential merge and acquisition target in the foreseeable future, given that this sizable bank of Hong Kong is still much undervalued.
At the same time, Dah Sing Financial is going to finish the Dah Sing Life deal, to be followed by a special dividend distribution.
STRONG BUY.
*Man-cheong HUI is the founder of Godahsing.com. HUI has had holdings in the shares of the aforesaid companies.
Link Dah Sing , Library
許文昌:大新系董事會變動足以催化估值
Man-cheong
6/02/2017
大新金融5月下旬發出延長出售大新人壽最後截止日期的公告,因原定1年限期6月2日屆滿,源自泰禾匯款出境最終需時9個月以致延誤審批,加上獨立保險業監管局將6月接替香港保監處的職能,但今次延期料也在市場預期之內,且延盡原定最多15個月的限期而非簽新協議續期,應算是望見家鄉了。
5月26日大新系舉行股東周年大會,筆者出席大新金融會議,發現一向參與的大新系執行主席王守業今趟罕有缺席,由於出售人壽交易未完成,筆者也未有再宣讀公開信,只表明立場提問交易和要求管理層承諾作出一次性分派,王守業公子、當時的大新銀行執行董事王祖興回應雙方均對完成交收有信心。
查早前報載大新人壽的新買家泰禾已將資金匯出中國,據筆者所得的消息確認泰禾資金確已到賬,目前只待監管方面批准大新金融出售交易,即可完成交收並料短期可宣派特別股息。接下來焦點應該是大新系如何重組和處置非核心資產,包括大新銀行轄下風險日高的內銀重慶銀行(1963)。
筆者過去已多番表明重慶銀行是部份拖累大新系估值所在,鑑於會德豐(20)、九倉(4)近期宣布兩輪實物派清有線寬頻(1097),為筆者過去提議分派重慶銀行提供無需重組大新系內股權結構的先例,特意以此提醒,執董王伯凌也算詳盡回答,強調視重行為長線投資,暫未計劃實物分派。
大新系管理層一向相對審慎,畢竟筆者代表逾230名投資者重申期望大新金融稍後一次性派發20元特別股息和減少內地風險的立場應予正視,對他們的回應算是滿意。會後驚訝在未有組織之下,大新金融竟有兩成一投票股東不支持集團配股的一般性議案,但最意想不到是會後竟然這麼快出現董事人選變動。
母企大新金融在股東會後宣布,將原執董、旗下大新銀行財資處及企業融資部主管麥曉德調回上市的大新銀行集團擔任執董兼副行政總裁,現任執董王伯凌兼任副行政總裁及集團財務及營運總監,6月1日起執董變相減少一人,十席只佔其三,算是為出售人壽業務後精簡鋪路,東京三菱UFJ非執行董事仍佔兩席。
更關鍵的在於上市子企大新銀行集團,原副主席兼執董黃漢興一併任董事總經理兼行政總裁,一直負責財務的執董王伯凌兼任財務及營運總監,執董仍為四人,被視為接班人的原執董兼董事總經理兼行政總裁王祖興,竟然辭去上市集團職位以出任附屬大新銀行的董事總經理兼行政總裁,取代王伯凌舊職,令人意外。
市場反應不大,原因是上市的大新銀行集團和附屬大新銀行名字幾近一樣,不易分辨,但47歲的王祖興早在後者身任執董兼副主席,除非犯錯,否則這種變相降職之舉只是離開上市董事會的借口。經過今輪系內調職,一旦76歲的主席王守業宣布榮休,大新母子董事會已再無王氏家族成員,變相去除家族色彩。
富商王時新1957年入股同鄉楊元龍早十年創辦的大新銀行並成為大股東之後,獨立發展,其三子、現任主席王守業和祖興父子執掌壯大至今日規模,幾乎不靠外援,大是不易,值得讚許。然而對比紛紛背靠龐大金融集團的香港同業,大新已難以攀比。現時大新母子三名執董系內職位完全一致,看守姿態強烈。
2012年11月,當時尚未出售予廣州越秀集團的創興銀行(1111)董事會宣布變動,創辦人廖寶珊家族第二代廖烈智辭任行政總裁,第三代嫡孫廖駿倫同時退出管理,刺激創興銀行股價兩個交易日急升兩成半,2013年10月銀行終於易手,創興銀行其後透過新的中資母企進一步擴展,收入短短三年翻倍。
總而言之,大新系複製同業之路合情合理,市場忽視的董事會變動足以觸發大型估值上調。大新銀行近期股價高逾16元見52周新高,但現時僅相當於1倍有形賬面值,股東回報近一成,既屬可見將來重組甚被併購的具規模港銀,仍被低估,而大新金融又屆出售人壽隨時完成兼派特別股息之際,應予強烈買入。
*作者為Godahsing股東倡議活動發起人,並持有大新系財務權益。 Dah Sing , Library
Dah Sing Financial appoints Gary Pak-Ling Wang as chief financial and operating officer
Man-cheong
6/01/2017
Dah Sing Banking says Hon-Hing Wong (Derek Wong) will be appointed as chief executive
Man-cheong
6/01/2017
大新不急於跟隨龍頭銀行調整按揭
Man-cheong
5/27/2017
重慶農商重慶銀行香港遇冷 券商警示地域風險
Man-cheong
5/26/2017
在廣發證券和中銀國際報告中風險因素部分,不約而同提到了「重慶地區風險問題」。廣發證券稱:「重慶地區經濟增長不達預期,資產質量大幅惡化。」中銀國際則稱:「重慶地區現區域經濟風險。」
在地域風險加大之際,重慶兩家銀行不約而同下調撥備覆蓋率,貸款質量是否真的有所提升仍值得商榷。
連結
在地域風險加大之際,重慶兩家銀行不約而同下調撥備覆蓋率,貸款質量是否真的有所提升仍值得商榷。
連結
德銀仍列大新系為港銀首選,再放售問題也不大
Man-cheong
5/23/2017
德銀表示,目前大新金融(440)和大新銀行(2356)只以0.8和0.9倍市賬率、8%和10%股東回報率交投,考慮長遠併購選擇估值不高,大新系仍為該行銀行股首選。即使大新金融短期股價或受交易延期影響,但其出售意向清楚,最壞情況可保留10.6億元訂金並再次放售,極可能再找到好買家。
Dah Sing
摩通下調大新銀行評級,大新金融料派12元特息
Man-cheong
5/23/2017
摩根大通將大新銀行(2356)評級由「增持」下調至「中性」,目標價維持18元,因預期其較少受惠加息環境和行業強勁貸款增長,核心盈利增長將遜同業,且股價經過近期與恒指攀升後其估值再上升空間有限。該行建議,趁股價回落15元或以下再撈,短期股價動力或在大新金融(440)若人壽出售獲批。
摩通維持大新金融「中性」評級和目標價59元,因其銀行營運無強勁催化劑帶動盈利上升,而大新人壽仍待監管審批,但相信最終成事,料下半年將宣派12元特別股息,故股價跌至55元或以下是買入機會。管理層稱交易仍待香港監管批准,即使買家缺乏保險營運經驗也可通過聘用高層管理團隊解決。 Dah Sing
摩通維持大新金融「中性」評級和目標價59元,因其銀行營運無強勁催化劑帶動盈利上升,而大新人壽仍待監管審批,但相信最終成事,料下半年將宣派12元特別股息,故股價跌至55元或以下是買入機會。管理層稱交易仍待香港監管批准,即使買家缺乏保險營運經驗也可通過聘用高層管理團隊解決。 Dah Sing
大新金融完成出售交易望見家鄉
Man-cheong
5/22/2017
Extension of Long Stop Date in relation to the Disposal of Life Insurance Companies
Man-cheong
5/22/2017
花旗:債券通對香港銀行影響正面 料中銀最受惠
Man-cheong
5/19/2017
花旗指「債券通」之公布對本港銀行而言為結構性正面因素。該行指自基金互認及港股通後,「債券通」進一步開放內地金融巿場,本港銀行作為中間人亦擔當重要角色。「債券通」作為中港之間獨特之金融基建,可大大增加行業之流動性,並重申本港作為內地及海外之間「超級聯絡人」的地位。
創銀:輝山貸款風險可控
Man-cheong
5/19/2017
被問及出售香港人壽會否因而遇阻礙,劉惠民指,已與買家及投資銀行溝通,對方未有提及有任何變化,現主要待監管當局審批。他續指,獨立保監局將於6月正式接管保監處工作,由於交接需時,估計年內難以完成交易。
連結
連結
大新個人銀行業務首季盈利錄雙位數增幅
Man-cheong
5/10/2017
大新:未來數年擬增3至5間分行
Man-cheong
5/10/2017
泰禾收購大新人壽資金確已到賬
Man-cheong
5/08/2017
王時新1957年入股大新後成大股東
Man-cheong
5/08/2017
里昂升恆生目標價至160元 出乎意料之外派首季股息
Man-cheong
5/08/2017
里昂發表報告表示,恆生(00011.HK)出乎意料之外派發首季度股息,是自2004年來首次,相信是與其符合一級核心資本的要求有關,未來或可成新常態,上調對其2017至2019年每股盈利預期1至2%,股息率料可達5厘,上調對其目標價,由158元升至160元,但重申對其「跑輸大市」評級,指該行於本港銀行股中首選中銀香港(02388.HK)
連結
連結
大新金融現價折讓最少兩成仍被低估
Man-cheong
5/04/2017
不意外,大新銀行(2356)近期股價見16元創下52周新高,市值逾224億元,畢竟其股東回報近一成,現時僅相當於1倍有形賬面值,作為未來有機會重組減持重慶銀行(1963)甚至被併購的有本地家族銀行,估值並不高,而大新金融(440)出售交易隨時完成之際,現價折讓最少兩成仍是被低估。
連結
連結
Deutsche Bank's Chinese Backer HNA Becomes Top Shareholder
Man-cheong
5/04/2017
HNA’s holding in Germany’s biggest bank rose to 9.92 percent, according to a regulatory filing Tuesday by investment entities acting on HNA’s behalf. The conglomerate initially reported a 3 percent stake in Deutsche Bank in February, saying at the time that it may increase its holding, while intending to remain below 10 percent. It disclosed a stake of almost 4.8 percent in March.
Link
Link
金管會:富邦金沒有要賣香港子行
Man-cheong
4/21/2017
金管會20日表示,富邦金向銀行局強調,並沒有規劃要賣香港子行,富邦金也同時發表重大訊息指不對市場臆測進行評論。
銀行局副局長莊琇媛指出,富邦金控向銀行局報告,近期並沒有出售香港富邦銀行的規劃,也沒有部分出售股權引進策略夥伴的動作。
連結
銀行局副局長莊琇媛指出,富邦金控向銀行局報告,近期並沒有出售香港富邦銀行的規劃,也沒有部分出售股權引進策略夥伴的動作。
連結
富邦金 傳出售香港子行
Man-cheong
4/20/2017
據傳,富邦金要出售香港子行已計畫一年以上,最主要目的是富邦金已有大陸子行「富邦華一銀行」,當初透過收購港基銀行(富邦香港前身)繞道布局大陸市場的階段性任務已結束,同時兩岸金融投資已經開放,如今可功成身退。
連結
連結
花旗:富邦香港值170億元!中資屬潛在買家
Man-cheong
4/20/2017
民生银行30亿理财“飞单”案发 竟涉票据“萝卜章”
Man-cheong
4/18/2017
私刻公章,已经成为金融机构操作风险的重灾区之一。仅2016年末,国海证券与20多家金融机构、农业银行河南分行与平安信托、江阴银行与恒丰银行、广发银行与招财宝、浙商财险等,均因“萝卜章”案发陷入纠纷之中,引发市场震动。
在民生银行北京分行航天桥支行一案中,据多方的知情人士对财新记者透露,系该行在某企业客户的商业票据上盖上了私刻的银行承兑汇票的公章,即“萝卜章”;该票据经银行手不断转贴现,直到兑付时刻,交易对手行方才发现公章为假。民生北分航天桥支行负责人为了填平这一票据窟窿,竟给该企业客户违规发放了贷款,用以兑付到期的票据。这笔资金约30亿元左右。
連結
在民生银行北京分行航天桥支行一案中,据多方的知情人士对财新记者透露,系该行在某企业客户的商业票据上盖上了私刻的银行承兑汇票的公章,即“萝卜章”;该票据经银行手不断转贴现,直到兑付时刻,交易对手行方才发现公章为假。民生北分航天桥支行负责人为了填平这一票据窟窿,竟给该企业客户违规发放了贷款,用以兑付到期的票据。这笔资金约30亿元左右。
連結
星展料大新銀行賣盤值兩倍市賬率 目標價18.7元
Man-cheong
4/12/2017
星展重新覆蓋香港銀行股,認為貸款回升加上非利息收入停止收縮的支持下,今年港銀盈利可望復蘇,而行業三大關鍵因素在於:1) 淨息差走勢;2) 按揭貸款競爭如何影響淨息差和帶來輕微貸款增長;3) 擴張計劃的執行,但該行暫時只計及行業3點子的淨息差擴闊,因流動性充裕和按揭競爭限制升幅。
星展認為併購將成港銀叫幕聲,而大新銀行(2356)是首選,目前利息環境有利其淨息差和估值,吸引王氏出售持股,料最少值2倍市賬率反映稀缺溢價,目前以低於賬面值交投不合理,因其股東回報達一成且有併購概念,予「買入」評級,目標價18.7元。東亞(23)也有併購角度但受累中國和股東結構。
星展相信,中銀香港(2388)目前估值未充份反映其穩健香港營運和海外增長能力,同予「買入」評級,目標價36元。東亞(23)由於併購不會短期發生,予「充份估值」,目標價27.8元。恒生(11)由於大比例美元和港元資產,加上往來戶對儲蓄戶率高,最受惠加息,評「持有」和目標價150元。
Dah Sing
星展認為併購將成港銀叫幕聲,而大新銀行(2356)是首選,目前利息環境有利其淨息差和估值,吸引王氏出售持股,料最少值2倍市賬率反映稀缺溢價,目前以低於賬面值交投不合理,因其股東回報達一成且有併購概念,予「買入」評級,目標價18.7元。東亞(23)也有併購角度但受累中國和股東結構。
星展相信,中銀香港(2388)目前估值未充份反映其穩健香港營運和海外增長能力,同予「買入」評級,目標價36元。東亞(23)由於併購不會短期發生,予「充份估值」,目標價27.8元。恒生(11)由於大比例美元和港元資產,加上往來戶對儲蓄戶率高,最受惠加息,評「持有」和目標價150元。
Dah Sing
大新第三代逐接班 屢傳賣盤
Man-cheong
4/11/2017
大新金融旗下澳門保險 涉嫌與對手「夾價」圍標
Man-cheong
4/11/2017
戴兆:大新銀行業績有保障合中長線
Man-cheong
4/05/2017
現年展望,大新慣例保守,有待中期報告後再作討論,但值得注意的是,大新金融出售大新人壽保險、大新保險服務及澳門人壽股權,只待監管機構批准;而大新銀行已與該等公司訂立香港及澳門非獨家保險代理。該等公司將向大新銀行及澳門商業銀行(為大新銀行全資擁有)26億元作為代價,代理權15年,款項分10年支付;此外,另有浮動款項按銷售額計,首年為60%,其後另議,該浮動款項2017年上限為2.25億元,將在大新金融售股完成作實。換言之,未來15年,大新銀行每年將有1.73億元固定收入及若干浮動收入,但可能需要承擔若干支出。
大新銀行股價在15元上波動,屬於月來高位,反覆不大,過去所傳併購消息已不再,反映基本條件亦具吸引,每股淨值約16.4元,但需留意其銀行產品只以成本列賬,實際淨值約18元以上,另有26億元的遞延收益,相當於每股應佔1.85元。現價15.32元,市盈率10倍,息率2.48%,可視作中長線投資,並留意可能的併購消息變化的可能性。
連結 Dah Sing
大新銀行股價在15元上波動,屬於月來高位,反覆不大,過去所傳併購消息已不再,反映基本條件亦具吸引,每股淨值約16.4元,但需留意其銀行產品只以成本列賬,實際淨值約18元以上,另有26億元的遞延收益,相當於每股應佔1.85元。現價15.32元,市盈率10倍,息率2.48%,可視作中長線投資,並留意可能的併購消息變化的可能性。
連結 Dah Sing
大新人壽買家泰禾據報已成功匯款離開中國
Man-cheong
4/03/2017
大新系股價轉強,據報一直拖沓的大新人壽交易有眉目,近日《金融時報》有篇不顯眼有關內地資本管制衝擊全球併購的報導,提及福建泰禾過去數月無法完成收購港資壽險商,其終於在過去數日成功完成清算將資金匯出中國,這意味中國監管當局已變相批准收購,大利大新金融(440)和大新銀行(2356)。
正如早前分析,大新人壽(440)出售可套現80億現金,相信大比例分派可改善估值,冀每股特別息逾20元,而大新銀行(2356)也可每年獲得穩定分銷收入變相增值一成,最終也惠及控股的大新金融,現價大新金融單計現金和銀行,每股最少值72.4元,現價仍折讓17%,且尚未計併購重組潛力。
Dah Sing
正如早前分析,大新人壽(440)出售可套現80億現金,相信大比例分派可改善估值,冀每股特別息逾20元,而大新銀行(2356)也可每年獲得穩定分銷收入變相增值一成,最終也惠及控股的大新金融,現價大新金融單計現金和銀行,每股最少值72.4元,現價仍折讓17%,且尚未計併購重組潛力。
Dah Sing
Chinese capital constraints send shock through global M&A
Man-cheong
4/03/2017
For months, Chinese conglomerate Fujian Thai Hot has been on the cusp of completing a $1.4bn buyout of a Hong Kong-based life insurer.
There has been just one problem: the cash needed to pay for the deal has been stuck inside China, awaiting a final regulatory sign-off from the country’s foreign exchange watchdog.
Thai Hot finally secured clearance to wire the money out of China in the past few days but the hurdles that held up the deal have been emblematic of the challenges that Chinese acquirers now face in pursuing overseas transactions.
There has been just one problem: the cash needed to pay for the deal has been stuck inside China, awaiting a final regulatory sign-off from the country’s foreign exchange watchdog.
Thai Hot finally secured clearance to wire the money out of China in the past few days but the hurdles that held up the deal have been emblematic of the challenges that Chinese acquirers now face in pursuing overseas transactions.
大新最壞情況可保留10億按金
Man-cheong
3/30/2017
德銀近日安排了大新系業績後午宴,料下半年的7點子淨息差擴闊較難維持,存息也應跟隨上升,而貸款增長今年應溫和而資產質素趨勢維持穩定,大新人壽出售則仍待港澳和百慕達監管批准,由於買家非保險商,故或需時較長。而最壞情況下,大新系可保留絕大部份共10.6億不可退回按金並稍後再賣人壽業務。
Dah Sing
大新金融折让待派逾20元特息
Man-cheong
3/29/2017
Fallout from China Huishan Dairy spreads
Man-cheong
3/28/2017
Shares in Hong Kong-listed Jilin Jiutai Rural Commercial Bank fell 8.7 per cent on Monday after Chinese financial media outlet Caixin said it was Huishan’s second-largest creditor, among a string of other lenders including HSBC, China Citic and Hang Seng Bank.
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Link
高盛降恒生至「沽售」,大新系維持「中性」
Man-cheong
3/27/2017
高盛表示,內地人民幣息率上升,港息下跌,但貸款息差不似會很快反映,故降恒生(11)評級至「沽售」,目標價144元,東亞(23)評級升至「中性」,目標價31.2元,維持中銀香港(2388)、大新銀行(2356)和大新金融(440)「中性」評級,目標價33.5、16.3和58.4元。
Dah Sing
Chinese Banks Sweat as Liquidity Crunch Looms
Man-cheong
3/27/2017
NCDs initially offered banks the attractions of low cost and no collateral requirements, but since October the average cost of issuing the AA-rated three-month NCDs has risen to 4.72% from 2.90%—in some cases exceeding yields on AA-rated one-year corporate bonds.
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重慶銀行去年多賺逾一成 息29.1分
Man-cheong
3/27/2017
截至去年12月底,不良貸款率0.96%,較2015年末下降0.01個百分點;客戶貸款及墊款減值損失準備餘額為42.32億元,增長43.3%;減值準備對不良貸款比率為293.35%,較2015年末上升49.37個百分點。
2016年,減值損失計提的撥備為24.11億元,按年增長1.12倍,增加主要是受貸款規模持續擴大及貸款級次遷徙等因素的影響。
連結
2016年,減值損失計提的撥備為24.11億元,按年增長1.12倍,增加主要是受貸款規模持續擴大及貸款級次遷徙等因素的影響。
連結
摩通看好大新銀行 待人壽交易完派特別息
Man-cheong
3/23/2017
摩根大通稱,大新銀行(2356)去年盈利由於撥備前經營溢利較弱略低於該行預期,但符合市場預期,由於穩定經營前景和不高估值,料2017年溢利回復正面增長,目前只有0.8-0.9倍市賬率,股東回報率約一成,加上核心一級資本12.7%,短期被攤薄風險低,維持「增持」評級,目標價18元。
摩根大通表示,大新金融(440)盈利低於預期因來自銀行貢獻較少,由於出售人壽交易仍待監管批准,股價會因特別息期望走弱,但管理層稱會待交易完成盡快宣派特別息。該行認為大新銀行(2356)的風險回報較為吸引,因為兩者交易市賬率相若,但前者股東回報率較高,予後者「持有」和目標價59元。 Dah Sing
摩根大通表示,大新金融(440)盈利低於預期因來自銀行貢獻較少,由於出售人壽交易仍待監管批准,股價會因特別息期望走弱,但管理層稱會待交易完成盡快宣派特別息。該行認為大新銀行(2356)的風險回報較為吸引,因為兩者交易市賬率相若,但前者股東回報率較高,予後者「持有」和目標價59元。 Dah Sing
德銀:大新系潛在正面企業行動,維持「買入」
Man-cheong
3/23/2017
德銀表示,大新系下半年盈利具韌性,由於仍在等待出售人壽的監管批准,故大新金融(440)無特別息是預期之內,基於兩者潛在正面企業行動,維持兩者「買入」評級。該行認為,昨日兩者股價下跌或與缺乏企業行動有關,但近期香港人壽出售反映香港保險業務的併購興趣維持高企,應可支持大新金融的估值。
Dah Sing
匯豐升大新銀行和大新金融目標價
Man-cheong
3/23/2017
匯豐將大新銀行(2356)目標價由14.7元升至17元,相當於1倍市賬率,,上調今明盈利預測4%和9%評級為「持有」,在費用收費復蘇和信貸成本溫和支持下,銀行下半年盈利按年回升12%,但由於國際會計準則IFRS9在2018年實施或導致其貸款撥備覆蓋比率有上升風險,令信貸成本上升。
匯豐表示,銀行業務下半年復蘇,但大新金融(440)焦點為人壽業務出售,其已被重列為持作出售業務,如果交易未能在2017年6月2日完成可再延期15個月,但特別息不用等待業績可按時宣派,由於大新銀行(2356)估值上調16%,大新金融目標價也由62.6元升至69.9元,評級「買入」。 Dah Sing
匯豐表示,銀行業務下半年復蘇,但大新金融(440)焦點為人壽業務出售,其已被重列為持作出售業務,如果交易未能在2017年6月2日完成可再延期15個月,但特別息不用等待業績可按時宣派,由於大新銀行(2356)估值上調16%,大新金融目標價也由62.6元升至69.9元,評級「買入」。 Dah Sing
大新金融:賣人壽業務仍待批 無計劃售銀行
Man-cheong
3/22/2017
大新料存息上升較貸息快 短期息差受壓
Man-cheong
3/22/2017
大新系業績符預期 評估後列人壽為「已終止經營業務」
Man-cheong
3/22/2017
大新系母子公布全年業績,僅倒退不足3%,大新銀行(2356)淨利息收入升9%,淨息差擴闊15個點子至1.98%,貸款減值上升13.5%,年底一級資本充足比率升半個百分點至12.7%,整體資本充足比率升至18.3%,兩者末期息均補回中期減派額度,數額維持去年水平,業績應是略勝預期。
午後大新金融(440)快速插水,拖累銀行下挫,料與市場憧憬派發特別息有關,但交易仍未完成,期望增派息本來不現實,公告內也認為「有關監管機構正進行審視批准泰禾作為大新人壽及澳門人壽控股股東之申請」,但強調「在現行情況下即時出售之可行性」 評估後將人壽保險業務列為「已終止經營業務」。
大新系績算有交代,對比同業比如東亞(23)資本比已回升,對比業績不俗的創興(1111)也不用削息保留資本,當然股東關注的出售交易確又已歷時9個月,這個跟內地收緊資金管制關係也大,也反映股東對特別股息期望很高,管理層或應在業績會上略作安撫,總括之言,買入大新系的併購初衷未見消退。 Dah Sing
午後大新金融(440)快速插水,拖累銀行下挫,料與市場憧憬派發特別息有關,但交易仍未完成,期望增派息本來不現實,公告內也認為「有關監管機構正進行審視批准泰禾作為大新人壽及澳門人壽控股股東之申請」,但強調「在現行情況下即時出售之可行性」 評估後將人壽保險業務列為「已終止經營業務」。
大新系績算有交代,對比同業比如東亞(23)資本比已回升,對比業績不俗的創興(1111)也不用削息保留資本,當然股東關注的出售交易確又已歷時9個月,這個跟內地收緊資金管制關係也大,也反映股東對特別股息期望很高,管理層或應在業績會上略作安撫,總括之言,買入大新系的併購初衷未見消退。 Dah Sing
大新銀行集團去年賺21.45億元同比跌2.5% 末期息28仙
Man-cheong
3/22/2017
大新金融去年純利18.92億元同比跌3% 末期息1.03元
Man-cheong
3/22/2017
重慶銀行去年多賺逾一成 息29.1分
Man-cheong
3/22/2017
截至去年12月底,不良貸款率0.96%,較2015年末下降0.01個百分點;客戶貸款及墊款減值損失準備餘額為42.32億元,增長43.3%;減值準備對不良貸款比率為293.35%,較2015年末上升49.37個百分點。
2016年,減值損失計提的撥備為24.11億元,按年增長1.12倍,增加主要是受貸款規模持續擴大及貸款級次遷徙等因素的影響。
連結
2016年,減值損失計提的撥備為24.11億元,按年增長1.12倍,增加主要是受貸款規模持續擴大及貸款級次遷徙等因素的影響。
連結
滙證:中移動、東風等有機派高息
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